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Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

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FairWarning
Anything on Auburn+11.5 vs SC? Seems high.
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FW, Garcia got benches again yesterday after several interceptions. He'll probably start and even if he doesn't he's better coming in trying to prove something. Regardless of all that though I'm concerned with the overall performance of the Gamecocks. I know this will be a no play for me but if I was forced into picking something I would have to take Auburn anything over 10.
 
:lmao:

Before the game, Albuquerque police arrested a man claiming to be a New Mexico football recruit on suspicion of driving while intoxicated near the stadium.

A school official said Joshua Butts, 19, borrowed a vehicle from Locksley's son, who's a walk-on player for the Lobos.

The SUV is registered to Meiko Locksley and Mike Locksley's wife, Kia, according to athletic department spokesman Frank Mercogliano.
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same source as above
 
These are qualifiers. As of yet they arent plays except for Alabama. I will narrow down the list and post the actual plays with write-ups later.


South Florida -2.5 @ Pittsburgh
Rutgers +3 (ML) @ Syracuse
Northwestern @ Illinois -7
Idaho +17.5 @ Virginia
Alabama -4.5/5 @ Florida
Arkansas St -10.5 @ Western Kentucky
Florida Atlantic @ UL Lafayette -9
Hawaii +3.5 (ML) @ LA Tech
Rice +16 @ Southern Miss
Oregon St @ Arizona St -17
 
kato
nebraska +9.5

thoughts?
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Wisconsin is really good. At home they are even better. They have been a good team and an up and coming team for the past couple of years but with transfer quarterback Russell Wilson they have gone to a whole new level.

Initially I thought this line would open in the 3 point range so to have it open so high I have to think that is an indicator of just how much better Wisconsin is.

I do believe Wisconsin wins the game but man, I just don't know if I had to choose here if I could pass on that many points with a team that is as physical as Nebraska. I will probably avoid this game even though it qualified because even after looking into things I can't decide if I think Nebraska covers because they ARE equally or close to being as good or if I merely THINK they are equal or close to being as good.

I realize this does you no good Kato but I really hate to try and convince anyone of something I'm not convinced of.
 
Alabama at Florida

As I am writing this I am watching the line drop in this contest. It opened at 4.5 and 5 at most places and any that opened at 5 pretty quickly went to 4.5. Now I am seeing the line at 3.5 in a bunch of places. I imagine this latest movement has something to do with the game being moved from 3:30 to 8:00. I can only speculate but I imagine many well informed people already knew this would happen. I also know that while The Swamp is always a good home field advantage it is even more so at night, much like playing at LSU but not quite.

I have read plenty about why Florida is the play, everything from the opening line was such that it practically begged for Alabama action to Alabama is overrated and Florida is grossly underrated.

Florida is vastly improved both on the field of play, on the sidelines and most importantly in the minds of the players. You can see how much this team is buying into the style of coaching and the surge of energy of Muschamp and staff.

I honestly see the improvement and even though I picked South Carolina to win the East I now think Florida has a much better chance than I originally thought of taking that. However winning the East and winning this game isnt the same thing.

In my eyes, and sorry but that is the best I can offer Florida doesn't match up as well with Alabama. Brantley is better yes, but he still appears a little whacky at times, especially when he feels pressured. Demp's and Rainey are phenomenal and have speed to burn but they aren't bruising type backs, in fact Florida doesn't have a bruiser coming out of the backfield. Also Florida doesn't have a serious go to type receiver. They have plenty of guys to throw to but none that poses a serious threat. This, even more than a punishing runner is a problem. Florida has to back Alabama off and force them to respect the pass, otherwise the Tide will load the box to stop the run.

Alabama has a freshman quarterback under center and while that is cause for concern especially in as hostile an environment as Florida he did withstand that pressure last week Arkansas. Granted it will be a different atmosphere in the Swamp. Wanna talk about bruising type runners then let's talk about Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy. Both backs run north and south and run hard. The Tide also has a receiver that will force Florida to respect in Marquis Maze. Simply throwing the names out there mean nothing if you haven't seen these guys perform. They are all serious next level players and will force Florida to focus on stopping one aspect of the game but still respect the other.

On defense both these teams have fast and physical players all over the field. I have been seriously impressed with Florida's improvement here the most but even with all that we are still sketchy in the secondary. I do believe Florida can play physical against the run but I'm not sure we can shut down the receivers in man coverage.

This game has potential to be a major showcase bonanza that even SEC haters will not be able to not watch with complete amazement. I do think there is a chance that Florida can win this game but it will take a near perfect performance and honestly some plays and schemes that we haven't seen yet. Weiss is capable of calling that type of game and Florida has the players to perform at that level but I'm not convinced Florida is quite ready just yet.

I think it will be a relatively low scoring game and I have Alabama winning between 7-10 points. I got the game early and already have lost value but I stand by what I have.


Play: Alabama -5
 
Rutgers at Syracuse

Syracuse benefitted from a bad call and an even worse replay that upheld the bad call in order to get the win last Saturday against Toledo. Take that out of the equation though and I would have to admit that I was impressed that the Orangemen were able to be in that game enough to even have it come down to something that close. I honestly though Toledos offense would be too much for them.

You will get different opinions from different people but in my mind the homefield standard is around 3 points. Granted some teams have more of an edge at home than others and probably even some have very little. Even though I have never been there I would imagine that the environment for Syracuse at home can be a decent advantage from a purely noise standpoint. So even if you give them the benefit of the doubt and award them a full 3 points that basically says this game is a coinflip on just winning the game.

We have to pick our spots and I might be picking a bad one here but I like Rutgers on the road. I like them straight up and general rule of thumb for me is to play the moneyline anytime I like the dog at less than 3 points.

If it moves back to or over 3 then well know early I am probably wrong here.

Rutgers ML +125
 
Rice at Southern Miss

There are a few teams I never win with. I can bet on them or against them and it makes no difference. Southern Miss happens to be one of those teams. I never seem to be on the right side of their games. I guess I should just give up even trying but I have this stubborn streak.

I cant tell you I know anything about either team this year as I havent even seen video highlights of them. I do know that I have value according to my program and even though its off to a lousy start and keeps forcing me to play bad teams on the road ( its force is strong, I am a slave to its power ) I guess I will give it another chance to save some grace.

You have to choose which streak continues, Rice continues to cover against Southern Miss and play close games or I continue to stay on the wrong side of Southern Miss games.

Rice +15
 
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