Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

[kato]

it is personal

 

[rito]

Guy, why can't you accept a bet or deny a bet and leave it at that? Why the need to try and prove your superior bankroll availability or insult a portion of what I apply to selecting games? I was cool with things up until this point but this post pretty much pisses me off.

fuk off.

 

[wal66]

Daft, what the hell does that have to do with anything? I didn't nor do I think I am better than Durito after winning the 500 challenge. I don't think I am better than any of the other people here that make wagers or post plays so what the hell are you asking?

 

[wal66]

fuk off.

I take that to mean that even at the bottom of a bottle you agree that your post was that of a dick.

 

[Tron]

Daft, what the hell does that have to do with anything? I didn't nor do I think I am better than Durito after winning the 500 challenge. I don't think I am better than any of the other people here that make wagers or post plays so what the hell are you asking?

Wally, I didn't ever think you thought you were better than durito.

My Tiger Woods post had more to do with this statement:

Durito, I think the odds are in my favor due to what I "presume" to know about the teams involved.

AND the sample size of the Durito 500.

 

[rito]

Wally, if you played 18 holes of golf with Tiger Woods and in the course of the 18 holes you chipped in 5 times and Tiger never chipped in, would you walk away from that round of golf thinking you had a better short game than Tiger?

No but if Tiger gave him a suggestion on his short game his response would be that he already knows how to play.

 

[rito]

He doesnt think he is better than me, but he knows more than the whole betting market. Thats an interesting contradiction since my whole strategy assumes the betting market prices games efficiently.

 

[Potato]

durito the market is SIA and you should be betting at pinnacle.

you'd be a millionaire after the first few weeks of CFB / NFL.

common.

 

[wal66]

Daft, it bugged me long after I logged out last night and by gawd it still bugs me this morning. What exactly annoys you about what I "presume" to know about the teams involved? You have checked out the definition of the word right. You do realize I'm not saying what I ABSOLUTELY know about the teams involved right?

I've seen all 3 Gator games, all or a portion of 2 of Georgia's and Kentucky's games and admittedly only portions of the Ol' Miss/Vandy game but it's enough to have a clue as to what is going on with these teams.

If Tiger Woods gave me a tip and I could apply that to my game then I would use it. However if the tip wasn't something I could incorporate into how I play the game then it could be the greatest tip ever offered and would still do me no good.

 

[Saulty]

Wal I only buy points on major numbers like 3, 7, 14 , 21. I don't think buyng a point to drop the 18 to 17 makes any sense. Not sure what the numbers say though.

 

[FairWarning]

Just because you watched the games doesnt mean you know more than Pinny. You are biased. My favorite argument.

Wally - if you watched the Florida games, why would you care what Durito and the market thinks. The market isn't always right.

 

[wal66]

Wal I only buy points on major numbers like 3, 7, 14 , 21. I don't think buyng a point to drop the 18 to 17 makes any sense. Not sure what the numbers say though.

Pav's I bought the point cause without knowing for sure what advantage or no advantage there was I felt more comfortable with 17. Probably makes no sense but I felt better about it. Pav's I never try to convince anyone that what I do is correct or something anyone should follow. I don't mind others explaining how what I do or did is mathematically incorrect so that others can learn something either.

Just because you watched the games doesnt mean you know more than Pinny. You are biased. My favorite argument.

Wally - if you watched the Florida games, why would you care what Durito and the market thinks. The market isn't always right.

I don't care too much FW. I respect Durito and what he does. I am fascinated by his and other process even if I don't fully understand them or would ever be able to commit to them if I did fully understand them. I got pissed with Durito only because he got snotty about how much more money he has in play yada yada yada, which is true but still pissed me off. Also didn't care for the condescending attitude about how I go about what I do.

 

[FairWarning]

I'm at work, sorry if it sounded like a shot at Durito, it wasn't meant to be. Wal, I do see too many people talked off of plays for one reason or another. If you watched Florida all year, you should have a good feel of this game. Fire away if you think the line is right. I do think there isn't enough sharing of info here for many reasons though.

 

[FairWarning]

Wal - money and smarts are not necessarily correlated. Someone's 1000 play may be 50-100 to another. To me the 1000 player can probably afford it. Doesn't make their play any better.

About the modeling method that some use here. I have done it in the past with poor results. To me,nothing beats the eye test. Doesn't mean any method is better or worse.

 

[Archie]

Wal, text me your plays

 

[Tron]

Daft, it bugged me long after I logged out last night and by gawd it still bugs me this morning.

Boys, we are getting to Wally.

Slowly but surely.

 

[rito]

Wal I only buy points on major numbers like 3, 7, 14 , 21. I don't think buyng a point to drop the 18 to 17 makes any sense. Not sure what the numbers say though.

in what sport is it that 21 pushes more than 17?

 

[rito]

if you are gonna buy from 18 go all the way to 16.5