NHL 2013 Round 2 Playoff Thread

[Matty]

Even with a tiny bankroll, you should be making bank MrQ. If you started with $500 and made one 5% bet a day for 613 days, ramping up your bet as your balance increased, you'd have close to half a million at the end.

 

[Matty]

$500 starting balance, one 5% flat bet a day for 613 days, 61.17% win rate - final balance $444,053

 

[Matty]

Actually, that chart shows results for no-vig bets. At -110, you'd have ~$131k. At -105, you'd have ~$242k.

 

[bacon]

Where the fok do you find time for this chit Matty



on the chart

 

[Matty]

1. =RAND() in A2
2. drag down to A614
3. paste values into column B
4. enter 500 in C1
5. enter =IF(B1<0.6117,C1*1.05,C1-(C1*0.0525)) in C2
6. drag down to C614
7. insert chart > line
8. done

 

[mrquincy]

We'll talk Matty. I may make a run at it next NHL season. I would need to put a $x size bet on every game and every over/under though. Seems a bit daunting of a task, but that was why i did the NHL contest; To see how I would fare if I did bet every game.... Looks pretty promising.

 

[rito]

Actually, that chart shows results for no-vig bets. At -110, you'd have ~$131k. At -105, you'd have ~$242k.

When your edge is actually 0:

 

[Matty]

We trust that you have an edge dorito.

 

[roguejuror]

We'll talk Matty. I may make a run at it next NHL season. I would need to put a $x size bet on every game and every over/under though. Seems a bit daunting of a task, but that was why i did the NHL contest; To see how I would fare if I did bet every game.... Looks pretty promising.

Matty would make a good Gambler's Agent. I wholeheartedly recommend him MrQ.

 

[reno cool]

what's one to make of a record like that? Certainly the chances of a "coin flipper" running that good is ridiculously small. Yet, out of so many some will have to run that good.

 

[Matty]

i.e. we double-dare you to repeat that exceptional run MrQ.

 

[mrquincy]

I don't even know myself if it is luck or what? Is that a sufficient sample size to tell?

 

[Matty]

It's a decent sample size. I've had a couple similar 500-bet blocks before, but not quite that high a win rate. 58-59% at best. 61%+ over 600 bets is exceptional.

 

[Matty]

Wait, were those all hockey moneylines? It says ATS, but I suspect that's not the case. It changes the picture quite a bit if you've been playing all fave MLs all year and they've been winning. Still an excellent result mind you.

 

[mrquincy]

It's a decent sample size. I've had a couple similar 500-bet blocks before, but not quite that high a win rate. 58-59% at best. 61%+ over 600 bets is exceptional.

They are picks in the NHL contest. They offer ML odds on the winner picks and you can bet up to 500 units/bet. The over under bets are at 2:1 as far as I can tell and you can bet up to 500 units as well

It's probably easier based on the fact that they were not real bets,only picks. If I would have bet say $10 for every game outcome and over/under I would be up about $800. This sadly is not the case.

 

[reno cool]

when did this start?

 

[Matty]

So it looks like you were really up 78 units for the season at 1 unit per bet. Someone less math-challenged than me can translate that result to the equivalent win rate % for ATS bets @ -105.

 

[mrquincy]

when did this start?

I started picking about 1/2 way through the season Reno. Probably from about after the time I got back from Vegas.