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2012 Kentucky Derby

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MrMonkey

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Fiver, remember when you were this guy? Go to the whip like you did in the vid and make the magic happen in this thread! LOL at the whip my friend! Luv ya! :yes:


Here's the low down on the field! Anyone that enjoys the ponies please give us your input!

Horse / Sire,
Watchmaker Odds,
Trainer/Jockey
Last Race, Result, Track, and Date
Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments

Bodemeister by Empire Maker
9-2
B. Baffert/M. Smith
Arkansas Derby, 4/14 1st by 9 1/2,
Jay Privman: Impressive win in Ark. Derby. Will try to wipe 130 years of history from the books.
Mike Watchmaker: Might do it. Has three triple-digit Beyers. Only three others here have but one.

Union Rags by Dixie Union
5-1
M. Matz/J. Leparoux
Florida Derby, 3/31 3rd by 1 1/4,
JP: Florida Derby trip, and its implications, will be debated up to Derby Day. Had no chance.
MW: Didn't get a great ride, but did not run all that great, either; still waiting for his breakthrough.

Creative Cause by Giant's Causeway
6-1
M. Harrington/J. Rosario
Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 2nd by a nose
JP: Ran another strong race and, though he just missed, remains one of the elite contenders.
MW: Solid foundation, performance; I'm just worried he might hang again without blinkers at CD.

Gemologist by Tiznow
8-1
Wood Memorial, 4/7 1st by a neck
JP: Reminded me of his sire, the way he idled once in front, and then re-broke when challenged.
MW: Did seem to almost handily handle Alpha. Have the feeling he will be a steam horse at CD.

Dullahan by Even the Score
10-1
Blue Grass, 4/14 1st by 1 1/4,
JP: Expertly campaigned - nice turf comeback, big prep in Blue Grass, Derby 3rd start off layoff.
MW: Took a big step forward at Kee and is peaking at right time; handled CD dirt okay last fall.

Hansen by Tapit 10-1
M. Maker/R. Dominguez
Blue Grass, 4/14 2nd by 1 1/4, 96
JP: Ran well in Blue Grass despite the fuss made over him during the day, and he loves CD.
MW: A terrific colt, but the Blue Grass was his first try at as far as 9 furlongs, and he didn't stay.

I'll Have Another by Flower Alley
12-1
D. O'Neill/M. Gutierrez
Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 1st by a nose
JP: With exception of sloppy track debacle at Sar, he has fired every time. Game in SA Derby.
MW: He was. But it was a hard race off a layoff and he's light on foundation; might bounce at CD.

Alpha by Bernardini
15-1
K. McLaughlin/undecided
Wood Memorial, 4/7 2nd by a neck,
JP: Clobbered on first turn, made nice run to get back in race, but couldn't go by Gemologist.
MW: Was also off two months prior to Wood, but subsequent physical issue doesn't help him.

Take Charge Indy by A.P. Indy
15-1
P. Byrne/C. Borel
Florida Derby, 3/31 1st by 1,
JP: Looks like he's falling through the cracks, but should not be taken lightly. Live longshot.
MW: Thing is, he won't get as easy a trip at Churchill as he did when he won the Florida Derby.

El Padrino by Pulpit
20-1
T. Pletcher/R.Bejarano
Florida Derby, 3/31 4th by 3, 90
JP: Although he was wide, didn't think he ever leveled off in the Fla. Derby. Disappointing.
MW: Probably can do a little better, but he was slightly overrated going into the Florida Derby.

Daddy Long Legs by Scat Daddy
30-1
A. O'Brien/C. O'Donoghue
UAE Derby, 3/311st by 1 1/4, 117 (RPR)
JP: UAE Derby winner another example of what a key race BC Juvenile has turned out to be.
MW: Ostensibly, the BC Juvenile attracts the generation's best. It's supposed to be a key race.

Daddy Nose Best by Scat Daddy
30-1
S. Asmussen/G. Gomez
Sunland Derby, 3/25 1st by 3/4, 100
JP: Gomez picks up mount since Sunland Derby jock Leparoux opts to go with Union Rags.
MW: Was again a game winner in NM, but got a nice setup. Leparoux's choice makes sense.

Went the Day Well by Proud Citizen
30-1
H. G. Motion/J. Velazquez
Spiral, 3/241st by 3 1/2, 92
JP: Victory in Spiral makes him as accomplished, to this point, as Animal Kingdom last year.
MW: It remains to be seen if he can make the massive progress at Churchill that 'Kingdom' did.

Done Talking by Broken Vow
50-1
H. A. Smith/S. Russell
Illinois Derby 1st by 3/4, 85
JP: Is the Illinois Derby over yet? FG's 18-race card took less time than that stretch run.
MW: His winning Beyer isn't close to being competitive. He'd be a Mine That Bird-type upsetter.

Liaison by Indian Charlie
50-1
B. Baffert/M. Garcia
Santa Anita Derby, 4/7 6th by 9 1/4, 78
JP: Recent form at SA very disappointing. Connections hoping change in surface will prove beneficial.
MW: Even if he really did hate the track at Santa Anita, he still might not be good enough.

Mark Valeski by Proud Citizen
50-1
L. Jones/R. Napravnik
Louisiana Derby, 4/1 2nd by 1/2, 89
JP: Lost shoe in La. Derby, which didn't help, but FG form has not held up (e.g., El Padrino).
MW: He's a nice colt, and game as can be. I just don't think he's a top-tier Derby prospect.

Prospective by Malibu Moon
50-1
M. Casse/L. Contreras
Blue Grass, 4/14 6th by 6 1/2, 87
JP: Made no impact in Blue Grass, and didn't beat much in Tampa Bay Derby. An outsider.
MW: He's a useful second-tier 3-year-old better suited to Derbies other than the Kentucky one.

Rousing Sermon by Lucky Pulpit
50-1
J. Hollendorfer/J. Lezcano
Louisiana Derby, 4/1 3rd by 2, 87
JP: Been too little, too late, in recent races. Seems a pretty decent cut below division's best.
MW: Was more competitive last time, but was around late mainly because they walked home.

Sabercat by Bluegrass Cat
50-1
S. Asmussen/C. Nakatani
Arkansas Derby, 4/14 3rd by 9 3/4, 92
JP: Ark. Derby was an expected improvement from 2012 debut, but he's still playing catch up.
MW: Did indeed improve, yet still was beaten by almost double digits, which speaks volumes.

Trinniberg by Teuflesberg
50-1
B. Parboo/W. Martinez
Bay Shore, 4/7 1st by 3, 94
JP: Appears the CDC hasn't found a cure for Derby Fever. Particularly virulent strain strikes here.
MW: His best shot of getting the Derby's 10 furlongs is with the assistance of a Sallee horse van.

I will do some research and give you my novice take late in the week on the winner, exacta, and trifecta!
 
Take Charge is probably the best value in the race. Everyone seems to be throwing him out. Bodemeister looked absolutely dominant in the Arkansas Derby but there's a lot of speed in this race and he'll be challenged early. The biggest question is the weather. If the track is sloppy, it could certainly favor the speed horses and Bodemeister in particular.

But the Derby is an absolute crap shoot. Nobody gets the trip they want.

Just fun for me to take a little shot at a ridiculous tri and/or super.
 
Mr. M,

My fav horse of all time is Smarty Jones.

I watched Smarty Jones break his maiden at Philly Park on a Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

If not for faggot Pat Day sacrificing his horse to push Smarty along, Smarty would have easily won the Triple Crown.

I hate Pat Day for that.
 
Mr. M,

My fav horse of all time is Smarty Jones.

I watched Smarty Jones break his maiden at Philly Park on a Monday or Tuesday afternoon.

If not for faggot Pat Day sacrificing his horse to push Smarty along, Smarty would have easily won the Triple Crown.

I hate Pat Day for that.

Nice Fiver!

All of Philly area was abuzz with him winning the Triple Crown! I think that was the year MrsM and I was watching on TV the Belmont and I started yelling "he's going to win the TC" and he just died at the end! Can't remember exactly but MrsM probably looked at me like you fuking idiot! She was more bummed than me!

Than the whole Philly area was caught up in the Barbaro thing and that did not end well!
 
Barbaro was another Philly/Delaware phenom. I remember when the gates opened to the Preakness and Barbaro's leg was just dangling around. Such an awful feeling. I don't want to say I had a $20 spot on Barbaro's debut at 11/1 (Canadian pool) at Delaware Park, but I just did.
 
Nicole bought me a Barbaro pillow case off of Ebay years ago.

Pretty fucking cool.

Very nice of her! Really sad it was! They did everything that was humanly possible for him!

Barbaro-xrays.gif