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2012 Kentucky Derby

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Larry Jones pulls Mark Valeski from Kentucky Derby field, opens door for Wayne Lukas and Optimizer.

Rosie's out and Wayne's in after the connections of Mark Valeski decided to withdraw their horse from Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

The decision will allow Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas to start his record 45th Derby starter in Optimizer, while ending the bid of Rosie Napravnik to become the first woman jockey to win America's most famous race.

In other years, trainer Larry Jones believes Mark Valeski would have been competitive in the Derby, but he thinks this group is too talented.

Fiver, this is your week! :yes:
 
Post Positions:

1. Daddy Long Legs
2. Optimizer
3. Take Charge Indy
4. Union Rags
5. Dullahan
6. Bodemeister
7. Rousing Sermon
8. Creative Cause
9. Trinniberg
10. Daddy Nose Best
11. Alpha
12. Prospective
13. Went The Day Well
14. Hansen
15. Gemologist
16. El Padrino
17. Done Talking
18. Sabercat
19. I'll Have Another
20. Liaison
 
I really like #11 Alpha. But the fact that Dominguez has jumped off to ride #14 Hansen scares me. It wouldn't be the first time that a jockey would have made a poor choice but most times than not they have a better feeling for the horse than others. Dominguez must feel that Hansen has a better shot than Alpha. Of course I'm not aware of the politicking going on behind the scenes with owners, jockey agents and trainers.

I'm struggling to find toss outs in this race. I'm not going to back a horse who has prepped in Dubai (#1) and I'm not going to back a horse has hasn't prepped at 2 (#6).

I'm going to pick #8 Creative Cause. If I were betting I'd be very happy to get anything near 12/1. This horse has already managed to come from behind and beat the ML fav in this race on a speed favouring surface. The pace in this race should be honest and Rosario has no excuses from the 8 hole.

For shits n' giggles I'd also place a little wager on the #17 Done Talking. There's a chance that the pace in this race could completely collapse.


Common one time with this #8!
 
BrockLesnarIsBack
I have Creative Cause at 35/1 but he doesn't have a chance, nor do any of the Baffert horses. If you actually look at the form this race is pretty easy to cap and find a winner.
Click to expand...

Real hard to find a winner when you have every horse in the field.

But you'll still probably be making excuses after the race like every other handicapper after pretty much every Derby.
 
I don't think there's a horse in the field that has even come close to a 45:00 going two turns. Bodemeister and Hansen will have to do something they've never done before which is basically rate off of a hot pace because the #9 will all keep them honest. He's a sprinter who will just run his race and eventually fade.
 
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