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Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

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Baylor at Kansas St

Ok to begin with I might be just a little wowed here. I watched Baylor against TCU earlier this season and I was just stunned by a couple of things. First Robert Griffin is one seriously dynamic weapon. The guy can run and even more impressive is the ability and accuracy of the grows. Secondly and what may have impressed me more than a single player was the desire of this team to perform and not quit.

I like that in a team and as someone who has coached various sports I can tell you that there is a HUGE advantage to coaching players that have heart and determination.

There is a chance that Kansas St could suffer from a let down after beating Miami last week although I'm not basing my play on that being a factor. I like Baylor to simply out perform K-State, win the game and cover.

While I will play Baylor minus the points that's not the play here. Even more than the side I like the total here which says a lot since I try to avoid TOTALS. While Baylor does score in bunches they tend to allow points as well. K-State has the ability to keep putting points up against any team not super stout against the run. I like Baylor to score in the mid 40's and Kansas St low to mid 30's.

Play: Baylor/Kansas St OVER 63.5
 
These are the qualifiers for Week #6. They are not plays merely the games that initially qualify to potentially become plays. The lines are from 5-Dimes Sunday evening.


Western Kentucky +9 @ Middle Tennessee St
California +24 @ Oregon
Kansas +32.5 @ Oklahoma St
Arizona -2 @ Oregon St
Boston College @ Clemson -21.5
Iowa St +16 @ Baylor
Mississippi St -17 @ UAB
Missouri @ Kansas St +3
Miami @ Virginia Tech -7.5
Michigan -4 @ Northwestern
Arkansas St -3 @ UL Monroe
Wyoming +9.5 (ML) @ Utah St
Syracuse -10 @ Tulane
 
Week 6 Game 1

Arizona St at Utah

This is Utah’s maiden voyage in the Pac 12 and they will eventually fare well in this conference I believe. I don’t think it will be so much this year but we’ll see.

Arizona St will never be confused with a national contender but for that conference at this time they are not a bad team.

I could try and write something here to sell you but that’s not my intent or purpose for that matter. I will tell you that I like the fact that I have 2 teams with a common opponent in USC. ASU beat them 43-22 at home and Utah lost to them 23-14 on the road. I do like that in a conference not known for defense, Arizona St has a pedestrian enough defense to make me think they have a slight edge. I also like the fact that I capped this game out with teams at full strength on initial capping with ASU becoming a play and when you factor in that Utah’s starting QB Jordan Wynn is in all likelihood out with a shoulder injury it makes it that much better.

I think some places may have taken this game off the board waiting for confirmation but I got it earlier. For the record though I like it through 7.

Play: Arizona St -3.5
 
Week 6 Game 2

Oklahoma vs Texas

Thats right its time for the Red River Rivalry.

This game almost slipped past me due to the line. I saw the Oklahoma -9.5 and thought, yeah, thats about right. Then I looked deeper and thought, hey, not so fast there partner.

I remembered so vividly the game between Oklahoma and FSU earlier this season and what a fantastically brutal affair that was. I also remembered how Texas struggled at home earlier this season against BYU and how unimpressed my memory of Texas was.

If my simple brain was remembering these things I would assume that others might be as well. So now this line made perfect sense and not in the way you might think.

Texas is 4-0 and the winning team in this contest hasnt won by more than 10 points since 2006 although Texas did win by exactly 10 points in 2008. This is a rivalry game and rivalry games are often upsets or close games.

The line isnt a trap, I dont believe in traps. I do believe that Vegas understands public perception and there are times that lines reflect that and I think this line falls into that category. I THINK the masses will ASSUME Oklahoma is THAT good and Texas is THAT bad. Maybe Oklahoma is but I dont think Texas is and I will gladly take the side I dont think Vegas thought I would.

Play: Texas +9.5
 
Week 6 Plays:

Arizona St -3.5 (now at -4 good to -7)
Texas +9.5 (now +10 good to +7)
Wyoming +11
Auburn/Arkansas OVER 63.5
Florida/LSU UNDER 41

Opinions:

Kentucky +21
FSU -11
Mississippi St -17
Minnesota/Purdue OVER 48
 
Cougar Bait
Minny Purdue is an interesting one. Suck fest of the year.
Click to expand...

Being that it's a TOTAL it's obviously not a program play and I'm probably banking on 3/4 of the points to come from Purdue. Suckfest for sure, I just hope it's a high scoring one.

For the record the ONLY program plays are Arizona St, Texas and Wyoming which program suggest as a ML play.
 
Week 7 Adjusted Lines:

San Diego St
Air Force -3.5

USC -3.5
California

Hawaii -5.5
San Jose St

Iowa St
Missouri -10

BYU -6.5
Oregon St

Colorado
Washington -17.5

Kansas St -1.5
Texas Tech

Baylor
Texas A&M -6.5

Utah
Pittsburgh PICK

Purdue
Penn St -20.5

Indiana
Wisconsin -40

South Carolina -8.5
Mississippi St

Louisville
Cincinnati -12.5

Michigan -7.5
Michigan St

Buffalo
Temple -17

Navy
Rutgers -10.5

Miami
North Carolina -7

UNLV
Wyoming -8.5

Eastern Michigan
Central Michigan -6

FSU -7
Duke

Rice
Marshall -2.5

Ohio St
Illinois -8.5

Miami Ohio
Kent PICK

Oklahoma St -7.5
Texas

Georgia Tech -14.5
Virginia

Ball St
Ohio U -8

South Florida -7.5
UConn

Western Michigan -7.5
Northern Illinois

Central Florida
SMU -8.5

LSU -19
Tennessee

UTEP -10.5
Tulane

Western Kentucky
Florida Int -17

New Mexico
Nevada -31.5

North texas
UL Lafayette -12.5

Boise St -35
Colorado St

Alabama -33
ol' Miss

Virginia Tech -10
Wake Forest

Clemson -14.5
Maryland

Florida
Auburn PICK

East Carolina -12.5
Memphis

Georgia -9.5
Vanderbilt

Northwestern
Iowa -13

UL Monroe
Troy -12

Stanford -21
Washington St

UAB
Tulsa -33

Idaho
New Mexico St PICK

Oklahoma -34
Kansas

Utah St -1
Fresno St

Arizona St
Oregon -6
 
wal66
I'm in early this week.

Plays:

Virginia Tech -7 WINNER
Michigan +3 LOSER
Tulsa -21.5 LOSER
Clemson -9 WINNER
Click to expand...

2-2 and really should have been 1-3. So discouraged with how things are going. I am missing indicators that in the past I recognized. I am laying off games I am confident in. Just making so many mistakes. Everyone likes to say it's a marathon not a sprint but all I have managed to do is circle the block.
 
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