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Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

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It's an awful start. I am making idiotic mistakes. Auburn line even at open was a warning and I ignored it. Ball St and Houston lines had HEAVY RLM which obviously isn't 100% but it definitely is a warning that you are probably missing something.

I'm trying to get in good early and I should know that I am not good enough to correctly anticipate the line movement.

I expect better Arch. I can do better.
 
Week 4 Adjusted Lines

NC State -1.5
Cincinnati

Central Florida
BYU -3

North Carolina
Georgia Tech -2

FSU
Clemson -3

South Dakota
Wisconsin -36

LSU -7
West Virginia

Kansas St
Miami -30

UL Monroe
Iowa -21.5

SMU -17.5
Memphis

Eastern Michigan
Penn St -24.5

Central Michigan
Michigan St -14.5

San Diego St
Michigan -7

Toledo
Syracuse -6

Georgia -12
Ol Miss

Temple
Maryland -12

UMass -5.5
Boston College

Bowling Green -7.5
Miami Ohio

Ohio U
Rutgers -2

Army
Ball St -3

Portland St
TCU -36

VMI
Akron -10.5

Tennessee St
Air Force -31

South Alabama -6
Kent St

Cal Poly
Northern Illinois -10

Western Michigan
Illinois -14.5

Arkansas
Alabama -13

Virginia Tech -24
Marshall

UCLA -2
Oregon St

Southern Miss
Virginia -8

California -7
Washington

Colorado
Ohio St -17.5

Tulane
Duke -7.5

UAB
East Carolina -22

New Mexico St -2
San Jose St

Middle Tennessee St
Troy -10.5

Fresno St -6.5
Idaho

Sam Houston St -10
New Mexico

UConn -13.5
Buffalo

UL Lafayette
Florida International -13.5

LA Tech
Mississippi St -14.5

Florida -21
Kentucky

Florida Atlantic
Auburn -35

UTEP
South Florida -24

North Dakota St -2
Minnesota

Rice
Baylor -20

Oklahoma St -3
Texas A&M

Indiana -8
North Texas

Vanderbilt
South Carolina -12.5

Nevada -12.5
Wyoming

Tulsa
Boise St -19.5

Colorado St
Utah St -11.5

Missouri
Oklahoma -17.5

Central Arkansas
Arkansas St -17.5

Georgia St
Houston -35

Southern Utah
UNLV -10

Oregon -13.5
Arizona

USC -6.5
Arizona St

UC Davis
Hawaii -15
 
I am working on it. Buddy is has season tickets and has been selling them every game so I mentioned those tickets to him. He's trying to stick it to me though on the price. I'm not giving him $500 per even if we are undeafeated at the time. I know what he pays for season tickets and it's not even close.

Don't get me wrong, it's a free market, if you can find a sucker then find a sucker but Wal's not gonna be anyones huckleberry.
 
These arent official plays. They are merely the automatic qualifiers. I dont agree with all of them but until I can cap them out I wont know for sure.

NC State +7
North Carolina +6
Clemson +3
Miami -13
Bowling Green +6
Virginia Tech -18.5
Virginia -3
Florida -18
Oklahoma St +3
Utah St -6.5
 
Florida -17 (-130)
Georgia -10 (-110)

Florida at Kentucky

This is not a no-brainer. I mean it is Florida's first road game, Brantley is still getting his footing and confidence level upped, we still don't have a "go to" receiver, we still have serious Red Zone issues, Demp's is banged up a little which all are reasons to be at least a little concerned. If those aren't serious enough reasons, Florida has Alabama on deck.

Kentucky is really pretty awful. They don't present a serious passing threat, they like to run the ball but aren't really all that good at that plus that is where Florida has improved the most on defense.

I try very hard to not be a homer but I just can't convince myself that this isn't a solid play. I can't see Kentucky putting up more than 10 points and honestly I think that is being generous. Florida even with the issues that they have should be good for 4 touchdowns and I honestly believe they will score 35+.


Georgia at Ol' Miss

Georgia has won the previous 7 against the Rebel's including last year when they routed them 45-17 with a much better (at least offensively speaking) Ol' Miss team.

Unlike the Florida game this one isn't a program qualifier but I still like the Bulldog's chances to get an easy cover. I actually like their chances more than Florida even if I did get way too "involved" with that game from a wager perspective.

I see Georgia winning this in the 311-10 range.



I will probably post more plays this week but for posting sake cause if these 2 lose instead of just a recreational gambler I will be a recreational capper.
 
FairWarning
I want to see the Charlie Weis short-yardage offense on the SEC road. It sucked in South Bend.
Click to expand...

I don't think you will get to see it much this weekend. Kentucky, while not the worst defense in the SEC is still not very good. In Charlies defense, Florida isn't built for short yardage period right now. While we do have personnel that are more between the tackle types than say Rainey and Demp's we just don't have a big bruiser. I am hoping that will be one of the things addressed along with a big, fast receiver in Muschamps future recruits.
 
wal66
I don't think you will get to see it much this weekend. Kentucky, while not the worst defense in the SEC is still not very good. In Charlies defense, Florida isn't built for short yardage period right now. While we do have personnel that are more between the tackle types than say Rainey and Demp's we just don't have a big bruiser. I am hoping that will be one of the things addressed along with a big, fast receiver in Muschamps future recruits.
Click to expand...

Charlie likes pass blocking OL more than road graters. Couldn't shove around the likes of SD St, Syracyse, Navy, UConn.
 
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