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Wal's 2011 College Football Thread

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wal66
Week #1 Plays:

Kentucky -19.5 LOSER
South Florida +10 WINNER
Indiana -7 LOSER
Boise State -3 WINNER
LSU +2 WINNER

Just playing these for $30 each just to get my toes wet.
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Mixed emotions. I mean it's a winning opening card but without sounding like a complete asshole I'm not happy with anything less than 4-1 any given week. There was heavy reverse line movement in both the Kentucky and Indiana game that told us before kickoff that these were most likely losers.

My card will always be done early in the week but I may hold off till later in the week to post just to monitor line movement. It cost me several times last year as well.
 
Wow!

Just ran the numbers for this weeks games and I don't feel good about what I am seeing. Looks like I will be favorite heavy and I never like it when I don't see some obvious dogs in some very good spots.

Michigan opening as a dog at home looks tasty but having a hard time deciding if it's not too easy looking. I watched the USF/Notre Dame game and the Irish moved the ball fairly easy just made really bad mistakes. I didn't see Michigan's game but I know they scored 2 touchdowns off turnovers so that doesn't tell me a lot about their offense.

I watched the majority of both South Carolina's game and Georgia's game and South Carolina cruised on offense once Garcia entered the game but the defense gave up more points than any backer should be comfortable with. Georgia was simply outplayed and out coached but they do have talented players on both sides of the ball.

Georgia and Notre Dame are 2 dog's I could make an argument for but the problem is my initial feeling even before this past week's results was they would both lose this week.
 
This should be the last week where I am playing games based on what I THINK I know about the sport. Hopefully next week I will be able to use my program to aide in eliminating certain games and targeting the best edge.

Central Michigan +12.5
I didnt watch a single highlight of Central Michigan but I watched just about all of the Kentucky game. There is some talent on the Kentucky team but they sure didnt look together or prepared against Western Kentucky. Credit Western Kentucky for playing tough though. Im not sure Kentucky should be a double digit favorite over many schools at this point. The potential is there but not sure its ready.

Stanford -21
No need to try and explain anything here as if it doesnt cover it only makes me look really bad.

TCU -2.5
I know they lost their opener to Baylor but credit Baylor, they are a very good team with maybe one of the most dynamic quarterbacks well see this season. TCU still has plenty of talent and they play hard. I expect them to get things clicking and still be a very good squad themselves. I dont know enough about Air Force and I am a little puzzled by this line but gonna go with my gut and take TCU here.

California -6.5
I am taking a leap of faith on this game. Colorado didnt look very impressive against Hawaii but how much of that is because it was played in paradise and more than a few teams get caught up in where they are instead of who they are playing.

South Carolina -2.5
Personally I have a lot on the line in this game. I predicted Georgia would start 0-2 and Im halfway home after Boise did what I thought they would do this past Saturday. My problem is that South Carolina gave up a lot of points to East Carolina. Yes the Pirates can score in their conference but I thought South Carolinas defense would be a little better than what I saw. The offense looked as good as expected once Garcia came into the game and look to see more of the same there.

Its never easy to play on the road in the SEC and some places are tougher than others, between the hedges are one of those places. Spurrier really dislikes Georgia and hopefully that and a team loaded with talent will be enough to get this game and cover this line.

Vanderbilt +1
No reason just a hunch.

Same as last week, just playing all these small at $30 each.
 
These aren’t plays just opinions. I may actually play some as the week progresses but for now they are just my opinion and will hopefully generate a little dialog.

Florida International +4
Iowa -6.5
Florida Atlantic +32
Mississippi St -7
North Carolina -10.5
NC State -2.5
Tennessee -7
Hawaii +6.5
Alabama -10
Virginia -6.5
Western Kentucky +9.5
Utah +9
Central Florida -7
 
Kato, I don't claim to know anything about Utah this season. I do know they have explosive capability but as usual there will always be questions about their defense. USC still has Bartley and he is quality quarterback and they always seem to have a good stable of receivers. I'm not sure how their defense stacks up at all. All these things combined is why this game is on the opinion list instead of the play list. Well that and the fact I HATE USC which tends to make me want them to lose even when I know they'll win.
 
wal66
Kato, I don't claim to know anything about Utah this season. I do know they have explosive capability but as usual there will always be questions about their defense. USC still has Bartley and he is quality quarterback and they always seem to have a good stable of receivers. I'm not sure how their defense stacks up at all. All these things combined is why this game is on the opinion list instead of the play list. Well that and the fact I HATE USC which tends to make me want them to lose even when I know they'll win.
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offense is utah's problem right now. wynn (qb) looks like a shell of himself. utah's defense is stout. -7 USC is how i feel.
 
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