Varied unit size or flat betting ??

[Mudcat]

I use flat betting. All bets are 1 unit. The unit size changes as the bankroll changes but the strategy remains consistent.

 

[rito]

kelly

 

[Matty]

Flat Kelly

Not really kidding either. When betting large cards of mainstream sports, I use the same flat Kelly-based % on every play, figuring that my edge is roughly the same in most cases. This isn't an exact science anyway.

 

[Dunder]

Where I have an edge that I can quantify (maybe 30% of my bets), I use a modified version of Kelly which smooths out bet sizes at extreme odds (the modifications become noticeable when odds are lower than -400).

Other than that I bet 2 units (1% of bankroll). When I am tailing someone else, it is 1 unit.

 

[Mudcat]

This isn't an exact science anyway.

That's what it amounts to for me.

I am not against the idea of variable bets for wagers with a significantly different winning expectation but it seems like all my working angles are in the same range.

I suppose Kelly would say I should bet differently for something I calculate as a 54% expectation versus something with 55% (just to throw some numbers out there), but in my experience things are not that tidy and consistent and exact.

 

[Acid Joe]

I use kelly, but then again I"m an idiot..... But that's what I do. Lately I've had trouble finding my edge so my bets have been more like flat betting than real kelly, but WTF I'm recovering from the worst downturn in history.

 

[Fu Manchu]

i very my un it sizes as my roll increases/decreases

 

[RageWizard]

I bet the same amount for every bet but I reassess the bets every quarter with consideration of the bankroll and what I think will be the total number of bets during the quarter.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Kelly

 

[Cougar Bait]

My unit sizes are all over the place in MLB and I am killing it. Might ease up towards the end of the month, who knows.

Right now I am gonna stick with what is working.

 

[rito]

My bets really aren't kelly very often. Most are just the limit which on the crap i bet is usually way below even a 1/4 or 1/2 kelly stake would suggest.

 

[FairWarning]

Flat for the most part, but games like the Cubs over tomorrow, I will unload. Maybe 1-3 games I will bump up some and once a month i will unload if i like what I see.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

My bets really aren't kelly very often. Most are just the limit which on the crap i bet is usually way below even a 1/4 or 1/2 kelly stake would suggest.

Yeah. I bet 1/4 Kelly and round for ease at the window here.

 

[Cougar Bait]

Flat for the most part, but games like the Cubs over tomorrow, I will unload. Maybe 1-3 games I will bump up some and once a month i will unload if i like what I see.

I'll be at the game, 23MPH wind blowing out, AZ still on the road, PLUS their pitching staff was completely demolished in the Rockies series.

There can't be a line out yet...my guess is 10.5

 

[wal66]

Muddy I personally like flat bets with only the occassional larger wager in very specific circumstances. Course what I prefer doesn't really matter since I'm not as active as most and treat this more as a recreational hobby rather than a lifestyle.

 

[fiveteamer]

I bet whatever I have in my account, usually on a parlay

 

[Polaroid]

Flat for the most part, but games like the Cubs over tomorrow, I will unload.

Good call.

 

[reno cool]

I like your spirit FW. Fucking unload.