Hooligans Plays Baccarat

The F0cker 500

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That UConn/Marquette game hurt. Would have been guaranteed a winning day cept' they decided to go to overtime and lose by 6 instead of simply losing by 2 in regulation.

:fok:

Now I have to hit both parts of the NBA play.

:fok: :fok:

Why can't things just FLOW?

:fok: :fok: :fok:
 
wal66

NCAA BASKETBALL:

UConn +6.5 :greencheck:

NCAA FOOTBALL:

Mississippi St +1 :redx:
South Carolina -4.5 :greencheck:
Georgia -8 (not loving this play) :greencheck:
Stanford -5 :greencheck:

NBA:

Philadelphia +9 :greencheck:
Philly/Lakers UNDER 202.5 :greencheck:
Click to expand...


On the one hand 2013 started out on a winning note. On the other hand I started 2013 out looking like a schmuck bitching about losers that were only losers if you didn't beat the closing line and only looking at the closing line, not realizing till the next morning that when you placed you bets your lines favored the results.

A total of 3 games were won by 1/2 each. There might just be something to what those sharps say about "always beat the closer", huh.

Oh, I bet anywhere from $20 to $100 with the occasional larger wager but anything over $100 is very rare. For the purposes of tracking and ease of calculating I will use $100 unit size. Unlike the Durito I will show everything as $110 to win $100. Just know I actually bet those games yesterday at $20 each.

Hmmmmmmmmmm, I think I will post actual profit as well. It is a log after all.



2013 Record: 6-1
Tracking Profit: $490
Actual Profit: $98
 
A lot of qualifiers today. These are the games that qualified but filtered out as NO PLAY.

Georgia Southern +13
James Madison +2.5
FSU -4
Seton Hall +1.5
Creighton -2
Bradley -2


So that leaves me with these as plays:


NCAA BASKETBALL:

William & Mary +7.5 (line moving against me)
Indiana St +6.5
Wyoming -4.5
Duke -12.5
Towson +2
Wichita St -6.5

:papageorge:
 
I'm torn FW. Obviously I like Florida but they are my team and sometimes we can't see clearly on our teams. Florida rates out as a 20 point favorite so I have plenty of edge but as you know my stuff starts with Sagarin Ratings and Sagarin has over-valued Florida all season.

Defensively I love Florida in this spot. Offensively though I'm not sure if we will try to do some things to open up or if Will wants to secure a victory and play it close to the vest. Even conservative if Louisville doesn't come with some intensity Florida could cover I guess.

I like Florida but I'm not sure if I will risk money in this spot. I'm more convinced Alabama is a better play.
 
What are the odds of hitting 500 correct plays within 800 total plays?

In the Durito Challenge I ended up at 53% and in order to complete this task I will have to hit slightly over 62% but I have no idea how to establish odds on it.

It probably has some of that x=y crap I bet.
 
From what I read this morning, it seem Florida is gonna control the ball for most of the game and do a lot of running... I think the came could end up pretty much like the Seminole game last night...

I'm gonna sweat the spread, in fact, I bumped it up to -15.5; Small 1 unit action plays... so I wont sweat too much...
 
wal66
What are the odds of hitting 500 correct plays within 800 total plays?

In the Durito Challenge I ended up at 53% and in order to complete this task I will have to hit slightly over 62% but I have no idea how to establish odds on it.

It probably has some of that x=y crap I bet.
Click to expand...

100%. Think positive.

Would you like to wager on it?
 
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