Hooligans Plays Baccarat

SB prop question

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It does not look +ev to me. I don't have any fancy formulae and stats to trot out but my gut feeling says no way. Odds are much greater that the total will land outside that range than in it. There are so many numbers outside that range it could land on.

Of course the other way to look at it is, Bookmaker would not be offering it if it was +ev. They know what they're doing.

Either way, I expect it is decidedly -ev.
 
These odds (effectively +136) suggest probability of 42.2%. 40-50 cover about 28% of all NFL totals. Even if you bump the probability of landing between 40-50 (considering the game total is 45), it is nowhere close to 42.2% (and that's 0EV).
 
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