SB prop question

[senco78]

at DSI :
total points scored in SB
41-45 +350
46-50 +400

total is at 45 now

is betting both of those not +EV?
your getting 9 points around the expected total at + money?

 

[Mudcat]

It does not look +ev to me. I don't have any fancy formulae and stats to trot out but my gut feeling says no way. Odds are much greater that the total will land outside that range than in it. There are so many numbers outside that range it could land on.

Of course the other way to look at it is, Bookmaker would not be offering it if it was +ev. They know what they're doing.

Either way, I expect it is decidedly -ev.

 

[senco78]

OK, I just figured since the total was set at 45 it would have a good chance of hitting b/t those numbers

 

[vagabond]

These odds (effectively +136) suggest probability of 42.2%. 40-50 cover about 28% of all NFL totals. Even if you bump the probability of landing between 40-50 (considering the game total is 45), it is nowhere close to 42.2% (and that's 0EV).

 

[roguejuror]

vagabond saves the day

 

[reno cool]

5 dimes line -650 whether Buck/Aikman say Big Ben in the first half. How can that lose?

 

[kato]

vagabond saves the day

fok yes

 

[roguejuror]

5 dimes line -650 whether Buck/Aikman say Big Ben in the first half. How can that lose?

its a confirmed winner

 

[Bread]

-675 now. Take it to the house!!

Tons of props here. Ug.

 

[Bread]

Me and Robyn did a bunch of silly squares between the two of us.

Right now at 0-0 it's on me to pay Robyn $20.

If Pitt scores a fg I get head scratchies. If a TD I am in line for $10. Holler.

 

[Blitty]

Slash will make a surprise appearance during half-time. +1425

 

[reno cool]

I don't think they said it yet. It's a set up

 

[Bread]

Damn I just lost $10 to Robyn :madd:

 

[rito]

Damn I just lost $10 to Robyn :madd:

i just lost like 15k to costa ricans

 

[roguejuror]

I just lost my beer bottle

 

[senco78]

in the process of losiing my mind

 

[Bread]

Damn Reeto! What was the bet?

 

[senco78]

no defensive TD?