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Poker Game Theory: All-in Or Fold Tournaments

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Vegas Dave
I used to laugh these off as a total joke, but I'm starting to wonder if entering one of these and playing optimal strategy would be advantageous.

At first glance, you are taking all of the skill out of the game of poker, and that's mostly true; but I'd also say that patience and hand selection are skills as well.

When you first enter a tourney like this, you'll have those looking to "gamble", and those looking to just play premium hands. Of those looking to just play premium hands (say AA, KK, QQ, AKs), after an hour or so, how many will be able to fold 99 or AJs if it's the first nice hand they've had all night?

Many of the "gamblers", going in with any pair, suited connectors, any A, etc, will be eliminated early; others will get on a roll and build a stack. As a result, with their "strategy" rewarded, they'll keep pushing. Add in those impatient types, and if you are patient enough to fold until you pick up premium hands, you should be getting it in good more often than not. Avoid a few bad beats, and you are on your way.

If you don't pick up any premium hands and your stack dwindles to say 10BB, you broaden your range and push with middle-pairs and what not; similar to what you'd do in a real tourney, anyway. In fact, most turbo tourneys devolve into all-in or folds in the late stages anyway.

Am I over-thinking this? Is this a complete fool's game, or could optimal strategy be a +EV proposition long term?
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Like most things in poker, it depends on your competition.
 
Matty
Oh. Had no idea there was such a thing. Sounds lame.
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It's definitely the type of thing you'd bring a book to. Not exactly a thinking-man's game.

MonkeyF0cker
Like most things in poker, it depends on your competition.
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Exactly, agreed, which is why I started to wonder if it would be advantageous. The field would have to be soft, wouldn't it? Sure you'd have a few sharps, but you'd have to imagine most legitimate poker players would avoid something that takes skill (their edge) out of the game, and you'd be left with a bunch of gamblers and thrill-seekers.
 
Vegas Dave
Exactly, agreed, which is why I started to wonder if it would be advantageous. The field would have to be soft, wouldn't it? Sure you'd have a few sharps, but you'd have to imagine most legitimate poker players would avoid something that takes skill (their edge) out of the game, and you'd be left with a bunch of gamblers and thrill-seekers.
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Probably pretty difficult to find enough of an edge to beat the tourney rake. However, I've never surveyed nor played the games personally.
 
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