Poker Game Theory: All-in Or Fold Tournaments

[Vegas Dave]

I used to laugh these off as a total joke, but I'm starting to wonder if entering one of these and playing optimal strategy would be advantageous.

At first glance, you are taking all of the skill out of the game of poker, and that's mostly true; but I'd also say that patience and hand selection are skills as well.

When you first enter a tourney like this, you'll have those looking to "gamble", and those looking to just play premium hands. Of those looking to just play premium hands (say AA, KK, QQ, AKs), after an hour or so, how many will be able to fold 99 or AJs if it's the first nice hand they've had all night?

Many of the "gamblers", going in with any pair, suited connectors, any A, etc, will be eliminated early; others will get on a roll and build a stack. As a result, with their "strategy" rewarded, they'll keep pushing. Add in those impatient types, and if you are patient enough to fold until you pick up premium hands, you should be getting it in good more often than not. Avoid a few bad beats, and you are on your way.

If you don't pick up any premium hands and your stack dwindles to say 10BB, you broaden your range and push with middle-pairs and what not; similar to what you'd do in a real tourney, anyway. In fact, most turbo tourneys devolve into all-in or folds in the late stages anyway.

Am I over-thinking this? Is this a complete fool's game, or could optimal strategy be a +EV proposition long term?

 

[wal66]

I am a nit for the most part. I am able to play passive aggressive but for the most part I play like a petrified stone. Since this is my style of play I will suffer bad beats more than some because obviously I am playing much fewer hands and if the best cards aren't holding up then I have more entries for the Community Fok U thread.

he only experience I have with the type of tournament you are asking about were the 300 chips Super Turbo Sit-N-Go's on Full Tilt. In those cases patience were key and often attrition combined with impatience would allow someone like me to score a cash. It rarely allowed for that style to win though because even if you made the money you were at such a chip disadvantage.

Dave, learn to study and become proficient at understanding "The Flow" of the cards. You can contact me and sign-up for my news letter The Flow via email. Or if you prefer you can simply become a member of The Spread Beneath My Wings as I will be entering negotiations with Matty about making The Flow part of the members benefit package.

 

[roguejuror]

matty you need to make The Flow newsletter deal

 

[wal66]

Glad someone read long enough to see that seamless transitional marketing there RJ.

 

[Matty]

Wally if you want to write about the flow of the cards I will publish your piece and promote the shit out of it.

 

[Matty]

VD - you're obsessed. Play every hand optimally, focus on weak players at the table, avoid costly confrontations with the best, and have a beer.

Let the flow of the cards decide your fate.

 

[roguejuror]

wally I read all your posts

 

[Archie]

Can't wait to be overcome by a wave of wally's flow!

 

[RayRay]

vd, why are you wasting your time with these little tourneys and sng's? everyone and their grandma has a few bucks to play these things...not much rhyme or reason to a lot of moves and it will drive you nutty...ive seen your posts on facebook and i will never understand why you dont just play cash games... once in a while a tourney or free roll to kill time is okay to do, but for the most part, unless you are playing in something where there is some actual risk involved to each player, you are pissing in the wind... just my take

 

[mrquincy]

There are some push/fold charts out there that discuss specifics of which hands you should be optimally going allin with depending on your stack size and blind levels. Also being the 1st person allin is very different from calling an allin bet. You can play Hyper-Turbos in a mathematical fashion and get a slight edge but the variance is massive so you may not see any trends develop until you have a few thousand of these sit n go's under your belt.

 

[Saulty]

If you have a hugh bankroll go all in or fold on every bet. Even the sultan of brunei can't go bust using this strategy.

 

[mrquincy]

I have a shove/fold chart here but it is in excel. If any of you want it; i can email it to you. I don't think I can upload a spreadsheet to this site and i was given this chart awhile ago.

On a lighter note. It looks like Full Tilt Poker will be back up and running by the end of March. WooooHooo! I can get my bankroll back hopefully.

 

[Archie]

If you have a hugh bankroll go all in or fold on every bet. Even the sultan of brunei can't go bust using this strategy.

genius

 

[Acid Joe]

It is strictly game theory. All in or fold can work especially against better players. Crappy players will gamble then you gotta say "whoa shit". Kill phil, and there is something in one of skansky's books about his all in or fold theory for a weak player in the WSOP.

 

[wal66]

Joe, every author you have ever read, every authority on poker you have ever quoted will become old news once you learn The Flow System.

 

[mrmarket]

It is strictly game theory. All in or fold can work especially against better players. Crappy players will gamble then you gotta say "whoa shit". Kill phil, and there is something in one of skansky's books about his all in or fold theory for a weak player in the WSOP.

think it was in TPFAP and he called it his "system"

 

[Vegas Dave]

Keep in mind, I am referring to "All In or Fold" Tournaments, where those are literally your only two options; not talking about using an all in or fold method in a normal game, which indeed Sklansky has covered. I would never consider this in a standard tournament; I'm no poker genius, but I can certainly outplay low-stakes donkeys post flop. Nice to call in position with some suited-connectors or low pocket pairs too, hit the right flop and bust the guy that refuses to let go of his top pair.

 

[Matty]

Oh. Had no idea there was such a thing. Sounds lame.