Pinnacle Lean?

[plommer]

Team A +7 +101
Team B -7 -111

Every other book on the planet has +7 -110 & -7 -110.

What are they telling you?

 

[Bread]

Bet Team C.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

They're telling you nothing. No value in anything if the lines are efficient.

 

[plommer]

They're telling you nothing. No value in anything if the lines are efficient.

Monkey what is the purpose of Pinny offering no vig on the spread in a football game where juice is 10% everywhere else?

Seems obvious that they are trying to attract money to team A.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Yeah. That's why lines move. They want action on the other side to balance it. However, their no vig line still falls within the vig of the other books. That's why there isn't any value.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

Pinny's vig is much smaller because their lines are more efficient than most other books due to much higher volume and higher limits.

 

[plommer]

What would be an example of a Pinnacle lean then?

 

[rito]

There is still vig on the +101 side.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

If Pinnacle had a line of:

Team A +7 +107
Team B -7 -117

And another book had Team B -7 -110, there would be some value in betting Team B at the other book.

 

[plommer]

There is still vig on the +101 side.

Its still much less than -110 being offered everywhere else, and I mean everywhere.

Pinny is the only place offering this on the CFL game between Edmonton & Saskatchewan.

If Pinnacle had a line of:

Team A +7 +107
Team B -7 -117

And another book had Team B -7 -110, there would be some value in betting Team B at the other book.

Late last night the line was Team A +7 +100 / Team B -7 -117 but this morning the line moved. I am talking about a CFL game here and compared to an NFL game the amount wagered is probably quite small.

 

[rito]

The vig on pinnies -111 is less than the vig at -110/-110

 

[djiddish98]

Was pinny offering that +100 / -117? I didn't realize they ever changed spreads within a market at approximately the same odds.

 

[djiddish98]

Team A +7 +101
Team B -7 -111

Every other book on the planet has +7 -110 & -7 -110.

What are they telling you?

Team A Prob = 100/(100+101) = ~49.75%
Team B Prob = 111/(100+111) = ~52.61%

.4975 + .5261 = 1.0236 <- "Pinnacle's Vig/Tax" or over-round

.4975/1.0236 = .4860 <- Pinnacle's probability without the vig (no-vig probability) for Team A

(1-.4860)/(.4860)*100 = ~+105.75 <- Converting pinnacle's no-vig probability into american price for Team A

This is the no-vig line with rounded probabilities. Team B would then be -105.75.

For actual numbers, I'm getting ~ 105.7393 / -105.7393

So therefore, if a book is offering +106 on Team A or -105 on Team B, there's a sliver of value there. -110 / -110 still is overpaying a bit.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

I'm on the over (57).

 

[Matty]

plommer, the discrepancy you're seeing is the result of Pinny micro-adjusting the price automatically based on the money that is coming in. Pinny is like a time machine that sees the very very near future (as compared to many other books that only move the spread while dealing a flat -110.) So Pinny offering +101 on a side tells you that other books are on the verge of moving their spread if the money keeps coming in on the other side.

In essence, they're not "telling" you anything. They're just showing you in more detail what's happening.