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Obamas numbers and Intrade

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gregm

gregm

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...d=maing-grid7|main5|dl1|sec1_lnk3&pLid=174870

I read this article today. Fox and Murdoch have been big supporters of Romney but Murdoch tweeted that he thinks its doubtful Romney will win the election . This article is from Huffington post which is pretty left leaning, but it is saying that Murdoch met with Romney just recently and Murdoch says he needs to to change the people behind campaign if he wants to beat the chicago pols behind Obama and if has any hope of being elected, but ends with a one word sentence. Doubtful.

I dont know if the huffington post is just reading too much into these tweets but when one of the most powerful right wingers in the world and the owner of Fox, Wall Street journal,etc. sounds pessimistic, probably not a good sign for the Romney camp and the Republicans. Should be interesting to watch these markets, I dont know much about intrade but they seem to be a very good indicator when it comes to the presidential elections.

Pinnacle Democratic -155

Bovada Democrats win election just went up to -165

Betfairs numbers http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=21311313&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=4509

Intrade numbers http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

This is a pretty interesting article about Nadex, a Chicago based firm that was prohibited by the CFTC from putting out election derivatives. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04...e-thats-now-off-betting-on-the-2012-election/

Smaller investors would have been able to us nadex and could have put in anywhere from 100$ and up on these contracts sort of like on Intrade. I was researching intrade and obama and found this thread on sbr about intrade and Romneys numbers back in march. http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1686002-intrade-talk-intrade-has-romney-almost-3-1-a.html

Does anyone her know much about intrade or use it? Thread on 2+2 about intrade, talks about liquidity and they do have their own forum but I didnt get much from reading it about their liquidity. Seems like a great idea but pretty hard to make any decent money. That Nadex would be alot of fun.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41/politics/official-intrade-discussion-thread-1083289/

Some interesting stuff from cnbc and others about intrade http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/about/pressCoverage.jsp
 
liquidity sucks on intrade.

matchbook had way more on the last election though last time i looked they had almost none on this one.

pinnacle has been taking 5k a bet for over a year now i'd say they are probably dealing the sharpest #'s as usual.
 
I have access to one but was just mainly intellectually interested with intrade with all its different type of markets ( monthly housing index,goggle lunar x prize date, hurricanes, gas prices) but durito is right , the liquidity sucks. I just really like these prediction markets, I was looking at a virtual one called called hollywood stock exchange http://www.hsx.com/ , where you trade virtual securities using virtual currency. You buy and sell films,actors, options etc.. I think cantor owns it now

Obama seems like a great wager right now, Romney is like a Mondale type politician it seems, I dont see how anyone can get excited about him. Even Murdoch says he is just playing it way too safe. Sbrjohn made money with his Romney trades I am sure but probably not much with intrade, I just wish this Nadex had of been allowed to operate.
 
gregm
I have access to one but was just mainly intellectually interested with intrade with all its different type of markets ( monthly housing index,goggle lunar x prize date, hurricanes, gas prices) but durito is right , the liquidity sucks. I just really like these prediction markets, I was looking at a virtual one called called hollywood stock exchange http://www.hsx.com/ , where you trade virtual securities using virtual currency. You buy and sell films,actors, options etc.. I think cantor owns it now

Obama seems like a great wager right now, Romney is like a Mondale type politician it seems, I dont see how anyone can get excited about him. Even Murdoch says he is just playing it way too safe. Sbrjohn made money with his Romney trades I am sure but probably not much with intrade, I just wish this Nadex had of been allowed to operate.
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You'd probably be better off buying the actual options, commodities, and/or futures rather than messing around with Intrade. If you can profitably model pricing on certain thresholds of commodities, you essentially have the tools to trade in the real market. There are some unique markets like scientific discoveries and the announcement of extraterrestrial life, but I doubt there is much money to be made in them.
 
Most everything depends upon 3 or 4 states, the 2 or 3 debates, and the price of oil and unemployment numbers.

Romney has a tough road, especially since he had no balls whatsoever.

He's too nice. You can't win an election being a nice guy.
 
Cougar,

Romney and Obama are polished enough that this election won't be won in debates. This one (as most) will be decided by the economy.

I bet on Democrats on June 30 at -148, and Pinnacle moved to -155. I'm not sure how sharp this line is. If Greece and Spain are still part of the EU in October, Obama wins. If Greece drops out, Obama is still a small favorite. If Spain drops out, it is economic chaos, but this is much less likely. Germany's ECB is giving in to pressure, and will probably drop interest rates at least 1/4 point in the next week. If Germany signs on, Europe will look rosier (or at least not collapse) until the election has passed. Italy is obviously a problem also, but not likely to mature until after the election. If Romney could delay the election six months, he would have a much better chance.

I think the fair price for Democrats is closer to -210, but I already have a pretty big position on this and don't want to bet more.
 
MonkeyF0cker
Carter did. :dunno:
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carter won because the country wanted to completely wipe out anything left in the white house from nixon. donkeys could've put almost anyone on the ballot in '76 and beat the elephants. think some of the same was true in '92, country was tired of reagan-bush years along with the fact perot factored into taking from bush and giving to clinton in key states like ohio and georgia.

murdoch is an idiot and has already lost control of his media empire.
 
Certainly different circumstances, but it happened. Could happen again.

Bush is a big reason that Obama won. It's a neverending cycle of shit... "That guy sucked. Let's try the other party that we thought sucked four or eight years ago."
 
Been reading a little more on intrade past few days, definitely has liquidity issues it seems but pretty good barometer for where these numbers will end up. There are so many interesting derivative ideas out there beyond election ones, this idea about offering film contracts is great.

I just wish Cantor could have taken that hollywood exchange beyond just a virtual futures market and get some real futures contracts on these films.

I would love to short some of these dismal hollywood blockbusters. This summer! More crap!

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H$31.57 H$0.40 (1.25%)

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Shares Held Long on HSX: 293,612,009

Shares Held Short on HSX: 9,147,758
 
The election odds followed a pretty predictable pattern last time. Every positive news cycle for each candidate and their odds drop. Obama was down to even money during the Republican convention for a few days. I had pretty decent chunk of my roll at the time of the election tied up in arbs with a little position on obama at excellent odds versus whatever it was then, i can't remember but i think it was around -300.
 
RogueJuror
How would the film contracts work?
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Cantor Fitzgerald runs Hollywood Stock exchange, the same folks who bring you Cantor gaming, Cantor gaming uses it for alot of its props on numbers on how much Hollywood films will gross. They have a virtual futures market called hollywood exchange where you buy "stock" in a film where the stock price basically reflects the movie box office projections. If a stock price is H30 it reflects the fact that the box office projections of 30 million after a four week opening. It hasnt been approved by the CFTC, its been around in this virtual form for awhile, if it had of been approved it probably would have helped people in this hurting industry.

You can short a movie just like you would a stock. It would be a box office futures exchange, but I think alot of people in hollywood are worried people in the film industry could hedge the film the way farmers move around corn or wheat futures to protect themselves from huge losses, so many of these films are so bad they are much worse than a disastrous wheat crop. It definitely would bring more investment to Hollywood. Basically its a prediction market like intrade or betfair.

The financial industry is getting really creative with these futures contracts and derivatives, you had that proposed Nadex with election derivatives where you could wager on Obamas election. Here are some articles on Cantor and Hollywood Stock Exchange.


http://abcnews.go.com/Business/movie-trading-mogul-kid-door/story?id=10079023

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Stock_Exchange


http://www.hsx.com/
 
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