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NFL Week 10

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mrmarket

mrmarket

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A better card this week although I will not look a gift horse in mouth for the gifts last week.

Oakland + 7 1/2 -105
Seattle -6 1/2 -105
Pitt -11 1/2 -105**
Minn ML*

If anyone likes to lay double digit favs I think all of them have value atm but I wouldn't be touching any of the dogs at current numbers.

*I like MINN at home this week but think the number will close higher so I'm waiting on a better price.

**Strangely enough out of all the dogs the one I wanted to bet most was KC because i think Pitt is current being overrated. The problem is that KC is just such a mess atm. They are a talented team just playing awfully this year with one of the most retarded front office/coaching staffs in the NFL. Although Mat Cassel is severely under performing I think it was a mistake looking to start Quinn in the first place since he is inferior and the whole situation will only make Cassel play worst. KC "fires" their defensive coordinator so he can help on offense but the coaching change makes no sense since he's never done so. Now their defense will struggle and offensive will remain inept. The key against Pitt will be the running game vs. their subpar defense but Charles is questionable. Hopefully he will be out and we gain more value on Pitt.
 
I'm not a big sports watcher but I'll prolly make a special effort to watch some of tonight's game. I haven't taken a good look at Andrew Luck yet and the season he is having is rather incredible. Still a lot of football to play but at this point, his numbers are looking Mike Troutish in terms of rookie-in-the-MVP-running.
 
Jacksonville +3.5

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I was just watching some football show on TV. They were saying that Indy had a big inspirational game earlier this season after rallying around Coach Pagano - and they beat Green Bay.

Next week they got hammered by the Jets.

Now last week they have a big Pagano-inspired victory over Miami.



. . . so obviously they are going to lose this week.

A somewhat, more-or-less similar circumstance happened once before so the clear predictable pattern is established ---> JAX wins.



These guys are so smart.
 
I am trying this new thing. I have taken to picking 5 ML games and boxing them all up in combinations of 4 and 5. I have had luck the last two weekends in a row. It seems easier to just bet the wins and not bother trying to handicap pts. On top of that, you can risk a lot less and if you win, there is still a decent profit to be made.

I took NE over BUF; MIA over TENN;BAL over OAK; ATL over New Orleans; and Seattle over the Jets. I played all 4 way combos of those 5 games and also threw San Fran over SD on the 6 way parlay. Payout is over 5-1 which is not great but you get the comfort of not needing anyone to cover.


I am also on NE -11
 
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