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NFL Sunday Discussion

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wal66

wal66

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My FLOW flopped on Saturday so now I find myself needing a decent day in the NFL to get back above the Mendoza Line.


Jacksonville @ Green Bay (-14.5) TOTAL 45.5

Initially I thought this was a slamdunk no-brainer for Green Bay. I mean with Gabbert and James Drew out for Jacksonville the Jags basically have no offense especially after what we saw from Henne last week. Then I looked into the rest of the injury report and OMG between these 2 teams the report adds up quicker than our national debt.

I did a study a couple years back on double digit spreads and in the NFL they aren't all that common in the first place and they aren't covered with any regularity throughout history even though in recent years they have been covered more.

Does it make sense that Green Bay might favor the run a but more and slow the game down enough to stay UNDER the total and maybe even keep Jacksonville under the number?


Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-3) Total 43.5

Seems fishy here. Atlanta has played as good as the best and better than the rest all season yet they are in the dog spot here. Some might argue that Philly has played worse than their record reflects to this point yet here we are with Philly favored over Atlanta.


Washington @ Pittsburgh (-4) TOTAL 46.5

Pitt hasn't been the same Steel curtain this year as in previous years and the Skins have shown the ability to put up points, can they get to 21-23 points here to give this game the opportunity to go OVER?


Oakland @ Kansas City (-1) TOTAL 42.5

I know week to week it's a different story in the NFL but last week Oakland looked as bad as they ever have up until late in the 3rd quarter, The Chiefs are certainly nothing special but can't they beat the Raiders at home?


Would love to hear comments on these games as well as any others.
 
I definitely like Atlanta +3.

One simplistic piece of philosophy I use in my NFL betting is that a home team favored by three should mean equal teams. i.e. if the teams were to meet on neutral ground, it would be a pick em.

I don't see that here. I see Atlanta as the better team. Their record and points differential is obviously better. Their schedule has been a bit weaker but I don't think enough to start calling these teams equal. Atlanta has been getting the job done and Philly has been fumbling around a fair bit.

I'm happy to get a full field goal on a Falcons bet.
 
wal66
My FLOW flopped on Saturday so now I find myself needing a decent day in the NFL to get back above the Mendoza Line.


Jacksonville @ Green Bay (-14.5) TOTAL 45.5

Initially I thought this was a slamdunk no-brainer for Green Bay. I mean with Gabbert and James Drew out for Jacksonville the Jags basically have no offense especially after what we saw from Henne last week. Then I looked into the rest of the injury report and OMG between these 2 teams the report adds up quicker than our national debt.

I did a study a couple years back on double digit spreads and in the NFL they aren't all that common in the first place and they aren't covered with any regularity throughout history even though in recent years they have been covered more.

Does it make sense that Green Bay might favor the run a but more and slow the game down enough to stay UNDER the total and maybe even keep Jacksonville under the number?

I think the line opened a 16 and was bought back down to 14.5. Gabbert being out isn't that much of a deal as he is terrible this year and the scrub henne they having replacing him should be equivalent. The bigger problem is that Maurice-Jones Drew is out. GB has mediocre rush defense this year and if they were going to win they would have needed him. I think the most likely angle is GB dominating in the first half because they need the win for the playoffs and putting in a replacement QB/2nd line DEF with a comfortable enough lead in 2nd half. A better angle to approach it i think is to look for a solid number live in game betting when GB is crushing them.


Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-3) Total 43.5

Seems fishy here. Atlanta has played as good as the best and better than the rest all season yet they are in the dog spot here. Some might argue that Philly has played worse than their record reflects to this point yet here we are with Philly favored over Atlanta.

PHI has underperformed this year. They do have several key injuries but it's mostly to do with the poor performance of Vic. Whether it's just variance or his age finally catching up to his QB style I do not know. Unless I can pick off a better number on either side i have no play on this

Washington @ Pittsburgh (-4) TOTAL 46.5

Pitt hasn't been the same Steel curtain this year as in previous years and the Skins have shown the ability to put up points, can they get to 21-23 points here to give this game the opportunity to go OVER?

Both PIT and WSH have middle of the road defenses this year with WSH being better against the rush and PIT against the pass. I have WSH +200 atm mostly because of the relatively poor performance that I've seen from PITT and the perception that they are still a top 10 team vs. WSH coming off a loss with a competent performance against what I rate as the best team in the NFL last week in the NYG. From what I'm reading the weather is going to be rain and 8 degrees which I think probably favors PITT as I have not seen this skins team with RG3 and how they fair in those conditions as of yet.


Oakland @ Kansas City (-1) TOTAL 42.5

I know week to week it's a different story in the NFL but last week Oakland looked as bad as they ever have up until late in the 3rd quarter, The Chiefs are certainly nothing special but can't they beat the Raiders at home?

I have the O41 -110 in this game and played the alternate at O45 but can't remember what I played it at offhand

Would love to hear comments on these games as well as any others.
Click to expand...

I also have these:
Det ML -124
DEN -6 -105
IND +3.5 -108
and I'm looking in game for Carolina & SD number which are also leans for me but not as they are currently priced
 
Last edited:
Mudcat
I definitely like Atlanta +3.

One simplistic piece of philosophy I use in my NFL betting is that a home team favored by three should mean equal teams. i.e. if the teams were to meet on neutral ground, it would be a pick em.

I don't see that here. I see Atlanta as the better team. Their record and points differential is obviously better. Their schedule has been a bit weaker but I don't think enough to start calling these teams equal. Atlanta has been getting the job done and Philly has been fumbling around a fair bit.

I'm happy to get a full field goal on a Falcons bet.
Click to expand...

I was having the same thoughts
but think this is the spot where Falcons shit the bed
no stats to back it up, just the gut talking

god forbid falcons make a run at an undefeated regular season.
cause we aint forgot how they play in the post season
 
NYG@DAL NYG-1 (over/under 48)
I think the easiest money this week will be Giants over Dallas; I'm going to buy the line up to -2.5 which is as high as they will allow. I don't see how the line can be only -1 for New York. I may be dead wrong, but I see New York crushing here. Romo always seem to choke in clutch situations and Manning clearly usually shines. New York can usually manage the clock very well. (Well enough to march down the field and kick the winning field goal.)On top of this, from what I read, Dallas' best running back DeMarco Murray is out for the game.
If I had to bet the over or under, I think I'd take the under, unless someone could make a decent argument for New York scoring 5 or more touchdowns...
 
Mudcat
I definitely like Atlanta +3.

One simplistic piece of philosophy I use in my NFL betting is that a home team favored by three should mean equal teams. i.e. if the teams were to meet on neutral ground, it would be a pick em.

I don't see that here. I see Atlanta as the better team. Their record and points differential is obviously better. Their schedule has been a bit weaker but I don't think enough to start calling these teams equal. Atlanta has been getting the job done and Philly has been fumbling around a fair bit.

I'm happy to get a full field goal on a Falcons bet.
Click to expand...

I am on the Eagles tomorrow.

Good luck.
 
I'm a beached whale after yesterdays games. I gotta find a winner today or this sun dried blubber carcass is gonna start to stink. So lets find a way to be generous here and find one winner so that the tide will come and sweep my ass out to sea.
 
I think GB can name this score. Rather than play a side, I'll be looking at A Green and R Cobb props. I have no confidence in Jax showing any ability to backdoor cover.

I played Philly early in the week at a better number. Not a fan of playing on dome teams outside, now that the weather is changing. Philly's pass D is pretty strong, Vick playing for his job, and Their record coming off a bye is why I played it.

Oakland or pass. Do you want your money on Brady Quinn in a near PK? Me either.
 
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