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Matchbook Commission Update

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EnglishMike
Possibly, but I do think there is scope for more prize money = more owners = more horses = better racing = increase in attendance.

Could be wrong.

I've been a horse racing fan all my life and its decline is global.

I hijacked this thread. Apologies to the matchbook boys.
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This is a first at gamelive.

Not really, more threads are hijacked than stay on topic.
 
MonkeyF0cker
LOL. You know what the handle is at Cal Expo?
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I absolutely know that the handle at Cal Expo is low. The perception/concensus among most thoroughbred horseplayers in America is that the jughead game is totally fixed and run by crooks.

Harness racing is really only big in NY/NJ ie the Meadowlands.

I have access to the host pools ast 95% of US tracks using my Horseplayerinteractive betting account.

I've seen the totals at Cal Expo.
 
betplom
It could be but having been in the racing game myself I can tell you my experience has been that horsemen are very much creatures of habit and slow to adapt or even consider change.

Lots of fear mongering.
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Plom,

If by horsemen you mean the owners/trainers than I'd disagree, if however you mean the track owners/management then most definitely I agree. Myself as a horse owner (albeit small time) and as a mid to high level player, I along with other owners/trainers/players have been pushing for the Ontario tracks to at least consider player friendly actions that don't involve just throwing another 20Cent option out there. (And as a side note, the 20Cent option is the absolute worst thing that has happened to the parimutual game the last decade bar none). I also know that Owners/Trainers in NJ have had discussions with the new management at the Meadowlands in regards to new ideas. The only idea that of course will work is lowering the takeout but this is where track management is in the dark ages. They only see a loss of revenue, not the opportunity to grow the sport. If the right horsemen were given a chance to straighten the ship, it may not save anything, but it would certainly give the sport a fighting chance.

My apologies for totally highjacking the thread.
 
MonkeyF0cker
They have a 0% takeout $20k guaranteed late Pick 4 on Friday night. Only reason to play there.

MGM has them simulcast and they're lucky to get $2k in win pools most races.
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I only play my local circuit, however this is good info to know. I will be watching this experiment with great interest.

BTW MF, did you find modeling horses more or less time consuming than a singular sport?
 
It has been a completely different animal due to the multivariate nature of the races which gave me some headaches at first. However, there is a great deal of data with horses that doesn't need to fished for as long as you're willing to pay for it. So, in data mining efforts, it was less time consuming but the actual model building process has been a bit longer.
 
Cobra the end is near for most harness tracks in Ontario, there seems to be little interest among people under 40 for the horse game, especially in Canada and Thoroughbred racing is the superior product.

I don't believe the thoroughbred meet at Woodbine is in jeopardy.

The harness guys in Canada have had a nice run (no pun intended) but the days of $4k claimers racing for purses higher then their claiming tag at the "B" class tracks are going to be a memory in the not too distant future.

I know Scott Fairlie and Vito Armata well, as well as one of the top officials at the ORC - Tom Cosgrove, knew them from years ago when I started as a hot walker for Beechwood (Stronach Stables ) in the 80's. Cosgrove was a trainer. I've known Scott Fairlie since we were kids on the backstretch. Still friends today.

I also tried the jughead game in the mid 80's, worked for Frank Conlin, Thelma Oconnor, and Ron Waples (Dave Furness).
Spent 1 winter at Ben White Raceway in Orlando working for Clint Galbraith.
 
Tho I am a harness guy, I am also in agreement that most of the tracks are doomed. I also don't think that is a bad thing. You cannot justify running for a total night of purses of $80k when the nightly handle barely reaches 10k. Contraction is not necessarily a bad thing when it comes to those rural tracks. I'm confident Woodbine harness will survive but not confident enough that I didn't downgrade my horse ownership from 7 horses a year ago to only one right now. Something definitely had to give, it gave, and come April 1st, we'll see where the dust starts to settle.
 
Do you find that $1+ exotic pools tri/super etc tend do be overbet on the favorite side? I figure since most people have a limited amount they want to risk they will key off favorites/leave out dogs. I have no evidence of this. A 20c option would tend to eliminate this.

I know some greyhound tracks offer a 10c super. But why do you feel it to be a bad thing?

I feel the ridiculously high takeout along with poor treatment of players is whats killing racing. I know when I was betting greyhounds seriously I felt a 20% reduction in takeout would allow me to bet 10X the amount I was. And this would likely apply to many others who can pretty much overcome the vig but need a little help to make significant profit.

I quit betting at my local track when the takeout went from 18.5% to 20.5 on wps and 22.5+ on exotics. Tracks handle dropped by 35%. Two years later the track closed. And of course they blamed the casinos etc. :wacko:
 
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It largely depends on the handle, Reno. There's a favorite/longshot bias that's overall prevalent in horse racing.

Just to illustrate...

In WPS pools, the longest longshots in each race are (blindly) overbet returning an ROI of -45.601%, -45.112%, and -52.281% while the favorite returns are -16.758%, -12.856%, and -12.470% YTD in thoroughbred races (at tracks with more than 200 races).

Meanwhile, a low volume track like Los Alamitos has better longshot returns than favorite returns YTD.

Of course, each race is individual and varies, but overall that gives you a bit of an idea. To answer your question directly, I haven't done much analysis on exotics yet. I would be surprised if it were much different though. Although, where there are Pick-6 rules (like at Gulfstream) where only one winner takes the entire pool and multiple winners receive only a percentage of the pool, it may shift those numbers a bit.
 
BTW, horses are an excellent way to build a symbiotic relationship with books if you're a sports bettor in Vegas. They get a 15% take on their volume to the tracks. You'll generally get 5% back in comps. So, they're getting at least 10% of your overall volume. Say you pump $10k through a day, you're making them $1k (plus their profit margin on goods/services with comped items) per day. They become friendly to your action very quickly.
 
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