Hooligans Plays Baccarat

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Best for me is Score Mobile. Phone, IPad or computer it's always there and from my experience really current. Allows you to see every score, conference, Top 25 or individual game, whatever you preference.

Please excuse my fellow forum mates for not responding already but they are more focused on what they aren't than what they could be.
 
choo
from the guy who doesn't have the "time, money or interest" to wager intelligently?
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you see this:

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
Yes: -160
No: +140

In Gronkowski's first pro game, he caught one pass for one yard. Yes, of course, it was a touchdown. You could remove his ankle and he's still probably going to catch a touchdown, right?

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?
Yes: +175
No: -200

These two bets, taken together, are a very weird mix. The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply that Gronkowski will score in the second half about 92.1 percent of the time, and that a bet on Gronkowski not scoring in the second half would have true odds of about +1166 or so. I hope somebody offers that.
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The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply that Gronkowski will score in the second half about 92.1 percent of the time, and that a bet on Gronkowski not scoring in the second half would have true odds of about +1166 or so. I hope somebody offers that.
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:what?:

:lmao:
 
RJ, I don't give percentages of opportunity for a plays worthiness and I definitely would never venture into true odds for a play.

I utilize journey method in my approach. I like to lead my reader on a path filled with practical yet hardly useful information. My critics can argue the validity my analysis has on a particular play but they can't dispute the integrity of which it's delivered.
 
durito
you see this:
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Just posing this question. We know that the stats you already have in hand for Gronkowski scoring a TD are based on him being 100% healthy when he scored all the previous TD's. Now he is injured and no one will know if he is going to be 20% or 80% ready for the game. So when you are calculating the odds of him scoring a TD in first or second half do you assume once he starts he is 100% ready like in the previous games where you harvested the stats you are using for this game? Does your model have a variable for player's game fitness?
 
Pavy
Just posing this question. We know that the stats you already have in hand for Gronkowski scoring a TD are based on him being 100% healthy when he scored all the previous TD's. Now he is injured and no one will know if he is going to be 20% or 80% ready for the game. So when you are calculating the odds of him scoring a TD in first or second half do you assume once he starts he is 100% ready like in the previous games where you harvested the stats you are using for this game? Does your model have a variable for player's game fitness?
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dont need numbers when the result is that dependent on health; decide whether he's healthy or not, then bet accordingly.

You can take it a step further and do it on all bets not just props, too. Game gonna be high scoring? find bets that fit that criteria (like the over, maybe even look at team totals or even 1st half over!). Game gonna be low scoring? find bets that fit that criteria. Rather ez process IMO.
 
choo
dont need numbers when the result is that dependent on health; decide whether he's healthy or not, then bet accordingly.

You can take it a step further and do it on all bets not just props, too. Game gonna be high scoring? find bets that fit that criteria (like the over, maybe even look at team totals or even 1st half over!). Game gonna be low scoring? find bets that fit that criteria. Rather ez process IMO.
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Thanks. What bothers me about betting on a player scoring a TD without fully knowing the extend of his injury is how long he will be able to play. The Patriots may try to limit his touches only when they are in the red zone so he won't have to run deep routes. So maybe a good bet will be to bet him to score a TD but bet the under on yards caught. So in the event he only plays a few plays and gets injured you can at least cash the under yards caught bet.
 
but that's precisely what the giants may think so belichick being the genius he is will use him early on in drives because the giants won't expect it then he's just a decoy in the red zone. but then the giants may think belichick may think that so maybe belichick adjusts and you are right. :dunno:
 
Pavy
Thanks. What bothers me about betting on a player scoring a TD without fully knowing the extend of his injury is how long he will be able to play. The Patriots may try to limit his touches only when they are in the red zone so he won't have to run deep routes. So maybe a good bet will be to bet him to score a TD but bet the under on yards caught. So in the event he only plays a few plays and gets injured you can at least cash the under yards caught bet.
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Choo laid it out nicely. I'm passing on the TD prop, played under 6 recs instead. He will be shot up I'm sure. Ben R had the same injury and was shot up also, how did he do? I couldn't lay odds on him scoring when he may not finish the 1st qtr.
 
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