Heritage

[Enigma]

the almost parlays pay out less than they should though so I'm not sure if they're worth it

 

[Troll Bait]

the almost parlays pay out less than they should though so I'm not sure if they're worth it

What should they pay out?

 

[Enigma]

parlaycalculator.com

compare to the heritage payouts for almost parlays

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

When there are a lot of games priced at -110, you should take a look at their almost parlays. Just don't put any team in more than 3 of these... they have a "rule of 3" to screw up parlay players.

Oh, wow. Nice.

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

parlaycalculator.com

compare to the heritage payouts for almost parlays

There is nothing worse than -107.0278305 breakeven in the "almost parlays."

 

[Patty]

Have found their soccer markets to be very slow moving at times. Not sure if that is helpful or not.

 

[Enigma]

3 teamer at -110 pays $21 for every $6

it should pay $35.75

that's significant

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

3 teamer at -110 pays $21 for every $6

it should pay $35.75

that's significant

That's not how you calculate it. You're completely leaving out pays for the other combinations.

 

[Enigma]

I didn't do every calculation. I was just showing how since winning pays a lot less I don't really see the advantage to playing them as opposed to normal parlays

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

I didn't do every calculation. I was just showing how since winning pays a lot less I don't really see the advantage

it comes out to roughly the same as playing a normal parlay at another book, apparently

Winning one combination pays less. That doesn't make it worse or even equal to full parlays.

Let's say you had two dice.

If you were to pay for only rolling a 12, what would fair value be? You have one combination out of 36. So, it would be 35/1.
To verify, let's find the expected value: (35*1/36)+(-1*(1-(1/36)))
That equals zero. So we're exactly at fair value.

Now, if you add a pay for rolling a 7 too, the probability of rolling a 7 is 6/36 or 1/6. So fair value would be 5/1.

However, now, if we try to pay fair value for both combinations, look what happens to our expected value....

(35*1/36)+(5*1/6)+(-1*(1-(1/36)-(1/6))) = 1

Whoops. Now if we're the house, we're paying +100% EV. We're gonna go broke real fast paying fair value for each leg.

 

[Enigma]

of course they can't pay full value for parlays and pay when they don't hit

not what I was saying

my original post was just replying that they may not be worth it to play due to heavily reduced payouts at the top end but again I didn't do the math to verify

 

[MonkeyF0cker]

of course they can't pay full value for parlays and pay when they don't hit

not what I was saying

my original post was just replying that they may not be worth it to play due to heavily reduced payouts at the top end but again I didn't do the math to verify

And I was just letting you know the truth. You don't have to get defensive about it.

Unless you're Pavy and hit 100% of your plays, the overall expectation is the only thing that matters. Not the top payout.

 

[Enigma]

And I was just letting you know the truth. You don't have to get defensive about it.

not so defensive.

Unless you're Pavy and hit 100% of your plays, the overall expectation is the only thing that matters. Not the top payout.

I agree, unfortunately we can't all be like pavy