Patty
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Jazz were +3 tonight at -110 for example. If you got jazz +3.5 -115 would that be +ev?
smitch124
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Its less -EV than +3 -110 but still -EV
senco78
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how do you calculate EV?
Dunder
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In a case like this, the easiest way would be to use the RBS half point calculator. Using the above example.if you assume that the closer +3 is the correct line, then the correct no vig line for your +3.5 bet would be -108
your EV is therefore:
108/208 = 0.5192 (probability of your bet hitting)
divided by
115/215 = 0.5349 (implied probability of the line you took)
minus 1
i.e. (0.5192 divided by 0.5349) = 0.9707
minus 1 = an EV of -2.92%
senco78
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wheres the 208 and 215 coming from?
Dunder
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The easiest way to calculate the probability from US style odds is as follows:
Where odds are less than +100 e.g. -110
odds (110) divided by odds + one hundred (110+100)
Where odds are more than +100 e.g. +120
100 divided by odds + one hundred (120+100)
reno cool
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just want to add that EV is simply the probability of an event happening vs its payoff. So lets say something has a 50% chance of winning and pays +105. For every 2 $100 bets you make you would win 1 and lose one... returning 205 for 200 bet and EV of 2.5%.
So handicapping is basically estimating the probability more accurately than the next guy(or book). Here they are assuming that one of the lines is accurate which is kind of
