FairWarning
Boring Poster
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Picks, interesting things i find along the way, and other musings.
Time to get started with some team rankings from Joe Sheehan:
Rankings from 30-21
30. Chicago Cubs (62-100; fifth, NL Central; 610 RS, 751 RA). As with the 2013 Astros, the 2014 Cubs' record doesn't really matter, and in fact, each additional win could prove costly, potentially chipping away at draft position and draft budget while providing no additional playoff chance and minimal additional 2014 revenue. This should be where the Cubs bottom out, with Javier Baez sure to be up at the start of the 2015 season and Kris Bryant and Albert Almora joining him during the year. However, this year's team lacks OBP, will be suspect defensively and is going to lose a lot of games in the bullpen. Starlin Castro is one of the most interesting players in the game, having been thrown violently off his Edgar Renteria track last year. With Baez coming, the Cubs need Castro to define himself. They also need 15 good starts from Jeff Samardzija so that he can be a trade asset in July, and if Edwin Jackson could become one, that would be a boon as well.
29. Houston Astros (63-99; fifth, AL West; 640 RS, 828 RA). For the first time since 2010, the Astros will not be the worst team in baseball. By the end of the season, in fact, they'll even start to be an approximation of "good," as first George Springer and then potentially some other young players make their way to Minute Maid Park during the year. The Astros are vastly improved up the middle, having integrated Jonathan Villar last season and traded for Dexter Fowler over the winter. The bullpen is comprised of more experienced and somewhat better pieces, though it's still far from an asset. The starting rotation will continue to be the biggest problem, as it's just not major-league caliber. The Astros will continue to be blown out a bit too often, but the improved group of position players and better bullpen mean that they'll have a better chance to win the games in which they get a decent start.
28. Colorado Rockies (67-95; fifth, NL West; 740 RS, 857 RA). If you look only at the left side on the field, where Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado stand, the Rockies look like a 100-win team. Everywhere elsenot so much. Especially on the mound, where they have assembled a rotation of back-end starters who put the ball in play far too much in an environment that demands strikeouts. The decision to leave Gonzalez in left field does create the potential for a strong outfield defense, with Drew Stubbs taking over in center, but Michael Cuddyer's veteran presence in right field undercuts the idea. Trading Cuddyer in his walk year would put Charlie Blackmon on the field and save Rockies' hurlers some doubles. Even that wouldn't be enough. The Rockies can look to Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler a year from now; for now, they're going to trail 6-1 in the fourth inning a lot.
27. New York Mets (69-93; tied for fourth, NL East; 613 RS, 710 RA). They'll draw 2.6 million fans, though, because Curtis Granderson. The Mets are a little like Mariners East, in that they haven't been able to turn their prospects into players. Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis looked like secondary, maybe even core, pieces two years ago. Now, they're trying to hold on to jobs. Kirk Nieuwenhuis never even got that far. Travis d'Arnaud arrived and immediately got hurt. The Mets don't have the resources to patch over that kind of failure, running a below-average payroll despite playing in a nearly-new ballpark in the largest market in baseball and owning most of their own regional sports network. This is a bad situation that may get worst before it gets better, even as the farm system produces a bumper crop of young pitching over the next two years.
26. Philadelphia Phillies (69-93; tied for fourth, NL East; 632 RS, 744 RA). This is one that surprised me. The offense just doesn't project well due to having five players 34 and older in the starting lineup, and the rotation both falls off a bit at the back and is at risk for age and health reasons at the front. The Phillies' Opening Day lineup will include five players who played in the 2009 World Series, despite the fact that this group hasn't won a playoff series since 2010. It's time to move on, Phillies.
25. Chicago White Sox (71-91; fifth, AL Central; 629 RS, 712 RA). i was initially more pessimistic about the White Sox. They've had a good spring, not necessarily in terms of performance -- which is irrelevant -- but choices. Marcus Semien will start the season at second base in place of the injured Gordon Beckham, and should play well enough to stay in the lineup somewhere after Beckham returns. Adam Eaton is in center field. Jose Abreu looks like a major-league cleanup hitter, if one with plate discipline issues. Felipe Paulino earned a rotation spot. Leury Garcia lurks as an infield option. There's a long way to go for an organization that hasn't drafted well for years, but the 2014 version should be a little better -- and a lot more watchable -- than last year's.
24. Minnesota Twins (72-90; fourth, AL Central; 635 RS, 741 RA). I'm encouraged by the decision to start Aaron Hicks in center field, after Hicks' terrible 2013 season in which he was rushed to the majors. Hicks showed good secondary skills for most of his time in the lineup last year; more importantly, he's a true center fielder, and the Twins need to put a good defense on the field behind the worst strikeout staff in baseball. Hicks is also good support for Ricky Nolasco and Philip Hughes, both of whom should help keep runs off the board. I was a little surprised the Twins came out so poorly, as i'd been talking about them pushing .500. Unfortunately, the rotation is improved but still not good, and they could be OBP-challenged at half the lineup spots.
23. Miami Marlins (74-88; third, NL East; 550 RS, 620 RA). As with the Twins, I thought the Marlins would come out better. There's only so much you can do with a team that brought in Garrett Jones, Rafael Furcal and Casey McGehee and called it an infield. It's a shame, because the starting rotation, led by sensation Jose Fernandez, could be well above average, and the outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna is young and exciting. A team that starts with Stanton and Fernandez should do better than 74 wins, and it's an indictment of the scam that is the Miami Marlins that they don't project better.
22. Seattle Mariners (77-85; fourth, AL West; 671 RS, 702 RA). Like the Marlins with their stars, the Mariners start about 15 wins above replacement level with Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano, yet don't even project to finish .500. They do have some upside, if all of the young pitchers -- Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez -- were to get healthy and be effective for a season. There might be one major-league outfielder on this roster, and that gives full credit to Michael Saunders that he may not deserve. The Mariners are the first team in these rankings that can make a case as a postseason team, the first with Bud Selig's famous "hope and faith".
21. San Diego Padres (78-84; fourth, NL West; 641 RS, 667 RA). They've made it easy for me to not get roped in, with injuries to Cameron Maybin, Josh Johnson and Carlos Quentin meaning they'll start the season short-handed. Cory Luebke is already done for the year, too. I'm losing a bit of faith in the Josh Byrnes-led front office as well; the Padres' big investments of late have been in two third-tier one-inning relievers and a DH. It's not easy running a team in San Diego -- walled in on four sides with no secondary market -- but that doesn't mean you just throw money away.
Time to get started with some team rankings from Joe Sheehan:
Rankings from 30-21
30. Chicago Cubs (62-100; fifth, NL Central; 610 RS, 751 RA). As with the 2013 Astros, the 2014 Cubs' record doesn't really matter, and in fact, each additional win could prove costly, potentially chipping away at draft position and draft budget while providing no additional playoff chance and minimal additional 2014 revenue. This should be where the Cubs bottom out, with Javier Baez sure to be up at the start of the 2015 season and Kris Bryant and Albert Almora joining him during the year. However, this year's team lacks OBP, will be suspect defensively and is going to lose a lot of games in the bullpen. Starlin Castro is one of the most interesting players in the game, having been thrown violently off his Edgar Renteria track last year. With Baez coming, the Cubs need Castro to define himself. They also need 15 good starts from Jeff Samardzija so that he can be a trade asset in July, and if Edwin Jackson could become one, that would be a boon as well.
29. Houston Astros (63-99; fifth, AL West; 640 RS, 828 RA). For the first time since 2010, the Astros will not be the worst team in baseball. By the end of the season, in fact, they'll even start to be an approximation of "good," as first George Springer and then potentially some other young players make their way to Minute Maid Park during the year. The Astros are vastly improved up the middle, having integrated Jonathan Villar last season and traded for Dexter Fowler over the winter. The bullpen is comprised of more experienced and somewhat better pieces, though it's still far from an asset. The starting rotation will continue to be the biggest problem, as it's just not major-league caliber. The Astros will continue to be blown out a bit too often, but the improved group of position players and better bullpen mean that they'll have a better chance to win the games in which they get a decent start.
28. Colorado Rockies (67-95; fifth, NL West; 740 RS, 857 RA). If you look only at the left side on the field, where Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado stand, the Rockies look like a 100-win team. Everywhere elsenot so much. Especially on the mound, where they have assembled a rotation of back-end starters who put the ball in play far too much in an environment that demands strikeouts. The decision to leave Gonzalez in left field does create the potential for a strong outfield defense, with Drew Stubbs taking over in center, but Michael Cuddyer's veteran presence in right field undercuts the idea. Trading Cuddyer in his walk year would put Charlie Blackmon on the field and save Rockies' hurlers some doubles. Even that wouldn't be enough. The Rockies can look to Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler a year from now; for now, they're going to trail 6-1 in the fourth inning a lot.
27. New York Mets (69-93; tied for fourth, NL East; 613 RS, 710 RA). They'll draw 2.6 million fans, though, because Curtis Granderson. The Mets are a little like Mariners East, in that they haven't been able to turn their prospects into players. Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis looked like secondary, maybe even core, pieces two years ago. Now, they're trying to hold on to jobs. Kirk Nieuwenhuis never even got that far. Travis d'Arnaud arrived and immediately got hurt. The Mets don't have the resources to patch over that kind of failure, running a below-average payroll despite playing in a nearly-new ballpark in the largest market in baseball and owning most of their own regional sports network. This is a bad situation that may get worst before it gets better, even as the farm system produces a bumper crop of young pitching over the next two years.
26. Philadelphia Phillies (69-93; tied for fourth, NL East; 632 RS, 744 RA). This is one that surprised me. The offense just doesn't project well due to having five players 34 and older in the starting lineup, and the rotation both falls off a bit at the back and is at risk for age and health reasons at the front. The Phillies' Opening Day lineup will include five players who played in the 2009 World Series, despite the fact that this group hasn't won a playoff series since 2010. It's time to move on, Phillies.
25. Chicago White Sox (71-91; fifth, AL Central; 629 RS, 712 RA). i was initially more pessimistic about the White Sox. They've had a good spring, not necessarily in terms of performance -- which is irrelevant -- but choices. Marcus Semien will start the season at second base in place of the injured Gordon Beckham, and should play well enough to stay in the lineup somewhere after Beckham returns. Adam Eaton is in center field. Jose Abreu looks like a major-league cleanup hitter, if one with plate discipline issues. Felipe Paulino earned a rotation spot. Leury Garcia lurks as an infield option. There's a long way to go for an organization that hasn't drafted well for years, but the 2014 version should be a little better -- and a lot more watchable -- than last year's.
24. Minnesota Twins (72-90; fourth, AL Central; 635 RS, 741 RA). I'm encouraged by the decision to start Aaron Hicks in center field, after Hicks' terrible 2013 season in which he was rushed to the majors. Hicks showed good secondary skills for most of his time in the lineup last year; more importantly, he's a true center fielder, and the Twins need to put a good defense on the field behind the worst strikeout staff in baseball. Hicks is also good support for Ricky Nolasco and Philip Hughes, both of whom should help keep runs off the board. I was a little surprised the Twins came out so poorly, as i'd been talking about them pushing .500. Unfortunately, the rotation is improved but still not good, and they could be OBP-challenged at half the lineup spots.
23. Miami Marlins (74-88; third, NL East; 550 RS, 620 RA). As with the Twins, I thought the Marlins would come out better. There's only so much you can do with a team that brought in Garrett Jones, Rafael Furcal and Casey McGehee and called it an infield. It's a shame, because the starting rotation, led by sensation Jose Fernandez, could be well above average, and the outfield of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna is young and exciting. A team that starts with Stanton and Fernandez should do better than 74 wins, and it's an indictment of the scam that is the Miami Marlins that they don't project better.
22. Seattle Mariners (77-85; fourth, AL West; 671 RS, 702 RA). Like the Marlins with their stars, the Mariners start about 15 wins above replacement level with Felix Hernandez and Robinson Cano, yet don't even project to finish .500. They do have some upside, if all of the young pitchers -- Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez -- were to get healthy and be effective for a season. There might be one major-league outfielder on this roster, and that gives full credit to Michael Saunders that he may not deserve. The Mariners are the first team in these rankings that can make a case as a postseason team, the first with Bud Selig's famous "hope and faith".
21. San Diego Padres (78-84; fourth, NL West; 641 RS, 667 RA). They've made it easy for me to not get roped in, with injuries to Cameron Maybin, Josh Johnson and Carlos Quentin meaning they'll start the season short-handed. Cory Luebke is already done for the year, too. I'm losing a bit of faith in the Josh Byrnes-led front office as well; the Padres' big investments of late have been in two third-tier one-inning relievers and a DH. It's not easy running a team in San Diego -- walled in on four sides with no secondary market -- but that doesn't mean you just throw money away.
