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Calculating "luck" in poker (Dumb Late Sunday Night Thread)

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Tron

Tron

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Just watched Antonio win the HUGH buy- in tourney again on ESPN. It's the 3rd time I've watched that final table.

I'm a big Antonio fan. He played well. He also ran good.

We all know variance but how much does good old' luck come into play?


Can luck be quantified?

I get that this is a very Wally-esque post.


What separates a Top 50 NL player from a Top 500 NL player?
 
Daft
Just watched Antonio win the HUGH buy- in tourney again on ESPN. It's the 3rd time I've watched that final table.

I'm a big Antonio fan. He played well. He also ran good.

We all know variance but how much does good old' luck come into play?


Can luck be quantified?

I get that this is a very Wally-esque post.


What separates a Top 50 NL player from a Top 500 NL player?
Click to expand...

I would say probably luck.

Also, luck can be quantified, perhaps unsatisfactorily, as variance. That is, certain incidents of good or bad luck can make or break careers.
 
I've always liked The Magician. Always smart on point and not afraid to make an ass out of himself. Stand up guy. It was great to see him win.

Luck, variance all of it I always think of it all evening out in the long haul unless you are playing the Superuser (who was actually Cami shhhhh) or something like that.
 
Luck exist in the short term. In the longterm variance will balance out the bad beats. This is why most will teach beginners to focus on making the correct reads and decisions and focus on results after a certain period of time. Even live you can run like god for months and then you will have a spell where everyone hits every 2 outer against you. For any player that wins longterm luck is only a word used in a given session. It dosent exist over say 1000 hours of poker or 100,000 hands online.
 
reno cool
I would say probably luck.

Also, luck can be quantified, perhaps unsatisfactorily, as variance. That is, certain incidents of good or bad luck can make or break careers.
Click to expand...

Especially in large scale tournaments where its impossible to get a large enough scale of similiar circumstance for "luck" even out. Had a friend have the worst bit of bad "luck" in a tournament where his opponent went runner runner to his only 2 outs and my friend came in 11th place in a $1500 event. He would have had 40% of chips in play with 10 remaining.
 
if something really bad has a small statistical chance of occurring at some point but then out of nowhere the chance of it occurring increases substantially only to ultimately decrease back to zero, am I lucky it did not occur? am I unlucky it got close to occurring? I never know at what point the luck monster garnishes its power and wages war against my state of being. how the hell am I supposed to fight for survival out here if i dont even know what im fighting daft????
 
good luck is winning hands when you are behind and bad luck is losing them when you are ahead...pretty simple, imo... when you start thinking that you got lucky to win a hand where you were ahead the entire time, then its time to call it quits and find another hobby that you understand a little bit better :yes:
 
but what im saying rayray is that i can be both ahead and behind on something it just depends on time (ahhhh time! another one of life's enigmas) so at which moment (time again ahhh!) do you judge your battles against the luck monster?
 
What if i make 100m a year trading for some bank for 5 straight years and i am paid 30m for my work. In year 6 I lose 7 billion but i keep my 30m and get the same job at a different bank for year 7. Year 6 was just bad luck right?
 
MonkeyFocker a while back was open to new App ideas. If you were to sweet talk him perhaps he could write you a Luck Meter App that would tell you when you luck is strong or weak.

For the record calling a big raise with 8-5 off, flopping 2-pair and getting rivered with a set does NOT constitute as getting unlucky. I see guys bitch about things similar to that all the time. You didn't get unlucky there, you were dumb, got lucky and ultimately got what you deserved.
 
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