MLB: 2010 PECOTA Projections
by 643 Sports Contributor
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It's that time of year, when baseball nerds emerge from the depths of their basements, with calculators and protractors at the ready, to summarily ruin the game of baseball for everyone else.
Hyperbole and satire aside, the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA) projections, for players and teams alike, have been released by Baseball Prospectus for the upcoming season.
Entire team and player projections (put in terms of statistics such as AVG, OBP, SLG, and VORP) are available to premium subscribers to the site, while the rest of us will have to make do with the team win projections (linked above) and the two individual team audits available for free.
As of now, the depth-chart projections are said to be in the "beta" phase by Baseball Prospectus, as many calculation errors were found in the first few runs of PECOTA for the new year. Specifically, defense was being double-counted by the projection system, and the run totals for individual players did not meet up with what their parent teams were expected to score in 2010.
These problems , along with other statistical jargon that I would only understand had I remained a stats major in college (I didn't), have forced the boys at BP to continually update and change the projections.
So here are the division winners and proposed wild card teams (with their win-loss record and projected AVG, OBP, and SLG) as projected by PECOTA as they stand now:
NL East : Atlanta Braves (85-77, .268/.344/.416) OR Philadelphia Phillies (85-77, .266/.342/.432)
NL Central : St. Louis Cardinals (86-76, .267/.339/.416)
NL West : Los Angeles Dodgers (86-76, .266/.335/.412)
NL Wild Card : Braves OR Phillies
AL East : Boston Red Sox (93-69, .275/.356/.448) OR New York Yankees (93-69, .277/.367/.455)
AL Central : Minnesota Twins (83-79, .280/.352/.444)
AL West : Oakland A's (85-77, .264/.343/.418)
AL Wild Card : Red Sox OR Yankees
Keep in mind that these projections have been changing since they were first released, so these projected winners may not match up with a blog post from a week ago or even a week from now.
And of course, don't be discouraged if your team is not projected to make the playoffs as of right now, there are still free agents to be signed and trades to be made, rosters still need to be set in stone (not to mention day-to-day lineups, something that PECOTA makes only educated guesses at), so there are still many things each team can do to change their projected season.
If thinking about those factors does little to assuage jaded emotions, remember that the 2009 PECOTA projections for team win-loss records had an average margin of error by 8.5 games, nearly double the error of the previous season.
Above all, remember that these are just projections . These should not be used as bona fide betting lines, rather as guides to see how a team's current composition projects to fare in the current environment in the MLB.
With that, enjoy, discuss, and let us all do our best to move as quickly through February as possible.
-Jonathan Platek
