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With just two days to go ‘til UFC 111 is upon us, the card saw some MAJOR changes take place. I ran the gamut of emotions in just a few hours. At first, I was majorly disappointed when Thiago Alves failed a CT scan and his fight with Jon Fitch was scratched. Then I was visibly upset when they moved the Kurt Pellegrino-Fabricio Camoes matchup to the main card over more deserving options.
But then, my mood was uplifted when it was announced that Ben Saunders would now be fighting Fitch. Saunders was already scheduled to fight, but his opponent was pulled and here we are – Saunders vs. Fitch. I’m in love with this fight and see a prime opportunity for a sweet upset. But before I get to that, let me tell you about a huge favorite that will win.
Georges St-Pierre -800
Dan Hardy +550
Lookit, I love me some Dan Hardy, I really do. The kid’s got style, skill, and heck, he’s just entertaining. But let’s not kid ourselves here. GSP is an elite guy who performs at a higher level than anyone else. I pray that Hardy doesn’t come out looking like a smushed bug ala BJ Penn, but anything is possible here. There are plenty of props available, which are about the only money-making opportunities in this mismatch.
Frank Mir -150
Shane Carwin +130
Through no fault of his own, it’s been over a year since poor Shane Carwin has been in the Octagon. He was slated to take part in a monster matchup against Cain Velasquez, but was pulled to take on the UFC poster child, Brock Lesnar. Then Lesnar came down with some mystery illness (I still don’t buy what they’re selling us) and he has been in heavyweight limbo since.
Usually I am leery of guys coming off of an extended lapse, but not here. Carwin is an absolute monster to the Nth degree. He’s going to come in with a world of frustrations to take out on Frank Mir’s head. Mir is certainly talented, but he’s not as dominant as he thinks he is. With the way he runs his mouth, you would think that he was the second coming of Anderson Lesnar Ali. Since his first submission of Lesnar, he TKO’d Minotauro Nogueira (who was vastly ill and in no shape to fight), got pummeled by Lesnar in the rematch, and choked out Cheick Kongo (who will lose to the top 10 heavies everytime.)
I feel strongly that Carwin is going to be the one guy that can give Lesnar a legitimate threat (assuming Lesnar fully recovers from his mystery illness.) Frank Mir will have a little less to run his mouth about after this. But he’ll do it anyway.
Jon Fitch -400
Ben Saunders +310
Do you know how excited I get when I hit a +300 dog or more? Well let me tell you how excited I get. Really, really, really excited. And I feel another one coming. I can feel it in the bones in my boobs. Yes yes.
Fitch dwells in the third tier behind GSP and Penn, but big Ben Saunders is a certain up-and-comer, and improving all of the time. I see a possibility of some matchup problems for Fitch. The key is for Saunders to avoid some takedowns, to allow himself the opportunity to batter his opponent with some vicious knees and kicks. If Saunders spends most of the fight on his back eating elbows, they yeah, this line is right where it should be. But I’m hooked on a feeling, and I’m looking for that payday.
Hi-YA!
PS – Nate Diaz is also fighting as a -300 favorite. I have never won a fight involving Nate, win or lose. If anyone has a clue, please give me a winner!
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But then, my mood was uplifted when it was announced that Ben Saunders would now be fighting Fitch. Saunders was already scheduled to fight, but his opponent was pulled and here we are – Saunders vs. Fitch. I’m in love with this fight and see a prime opportunity for a sweet upset. But before I get to that, let me tell you about a huge favorite that will win.
Georges St-Pierre -800
Dan Hardy +550
Lookit, I love me some Dan Hardy, I really do. The kid’s got style, skill, and heck, he’s just entertaining. But let’s not kid ourselves here. GSP is an elite guy who performs at a higher level than anyone else. I pray that Hardy doesn’t come out looking like a smushed bug ala BJ Penn, but anything is possible here. There are plenty of props available, which are about the only money-making opportunities in this mismatch.
Frank Mir -150
Shane Carwin +130
Through no fault of his own, it’s been over a year since poor Shane Carwin has been in the Octagon. He was slated to take part in a monster matchup against Cain Velasquez, but was pulled to take on the UFC poster child, Brock Lesnar. Then Lesnar came down with some mystery illness (I still don’t buy what they’re selling us) and he has been in heavyweight limbo since.
Usually I am leery of guys coming off of an extended lapse, but not here. Carwin is an absolute monster to the Nth degree. He’s going to come in with a world of frustrations to take out on Frank Mir’s head. Mir is certainly talented, but he’s not as dominant as he thinks he is. With the way he runs his mouth, you would think that he was the second coming of Anderson Lesnar Ali. Since his first submission of Lesnar, he TKO’d Minotauro Nogueira (who was vastly ill and in no shape to fight), got pummeled by Lesnar in the rematch, and choked out Cheick Kongo (who will lose to the top 10 heavies everytime.)
Carwin CanWin
I feel strongly that Carwin is going to be the one guy that can give Lesnar a legitimate threat (assuming Lesnar fully recovers from his mystery illness.) Frank Mir will have a little less to run his mouth about after this. But he’ll do it anyway.
Jon Fitch -400
Ben Saunders +310
Do you know how excited I get when I hit a +300 dog or more? Well let me tell you how excited I get. Really, really, really excited. And I feel another one coming. I can feel it in the bones in my boobs. Yes yes.
Fitch dwells in the third tier behind GSP and Penn, but big Ben Saunders is a certain up-and-comer, and improving all of the time. I see a possibility of some matchup problems for Fitch. The key is for Saunders to avoid some takedowns, to allow himself the opportunity to batter his opponent with some vicious knees and kicks. If Saunders spends most of the fight on his back eating elbows, they yeah, this line is right where it should be. But I’m hooked on a feeling, and I’m looking for that payday.
Hi-YA!
PS – Nate Diaz is also fighting as a -300 favorite. I have never won a fight involving Nate, win or lose. If anyone has a clue, please give me a winner!
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