RogueJuror, a soccer question

[wal66]

RJ, the guys are always talking about Pinnacle being the true source. Does this apply to soccer as well? In the Mexican League I found this discrepancy on a total.

Pinnacle Line:
Pachuca vs Rayados Monterrey
Over 2.5 +101
Under 2.5 -114

RebateWager Line:
Pachuca vs Rayados Monterrey
Over 2.5 -135
Under 2.5 -105

The Pinnical line suggest the play is on the over and the RebateWager line the opposite. Am I reading that correctly and does this game have a real potential to go over?

 

[roguejuror]

Pinnacle is the lord on American sports but not in soccer. The Asiatic books rule there. They have made huge inroads in soccer specially after they publicly left the American market but not enough to name them the authority. They have great markets in the top European leagues (England, Spain, Italy etc) but the medium and smaller leagues are pathetic. Even in those big markets they won't deviate from the Asians.

You have nothing worth on those lines.

 

[wal66]

Appreciate it. Figured something wouldn't be right. Spent hours looking at every game on the board and comparing them and this was the best I found. Oh well.

 

[rito]

Wally you should meet Mrs. Durito.

 

[Jello]

Wally you should meet Mrs. Durito.

Interesting.

 

[wal66]

Durito, I am pretty confident that, that wasn't intended as a compliment. You, Herman and Patty she form a boy band, call yourselves Wal's Warts or something catchy like that.

 

[rito]

What part of pinnacles lines suggests betting on over?

 

[RayRay]

maybe it was a typo...every indication leads to under being the play here wally...wally, please tell me this was a typo... I need for you to tell me it was a typo!
:

 

[wal66]

Yes RayRay the play would be on the UNDER if Pinnacle was a solid soccer source.

 

[rito]

Yes RayRay the play would be on the UNDER if Pinnacle was a solid soccer source.

No.

There are no right sides, only right prices.

I would play the above referenced game over at -101 or better or under at +114 or better. RJ has outlined the issues with pinny on small soccer markets like this, but they are simply copying sbo anyway so the lines are usually about the same.

 

[rito]

If pinny was a perfectly efficient market, the rebate wager under at -105 would have a tiny edge, but it can never be a perfectly efficient market due to the vig.

 

[wal66]

Durito, all I was trying to do was get a judge of how I interpreted the lines. I realize my questions are lame, maybe even idiotic at times but for someone who is coming into this having never done anything but look at the matchups before there is a lot to learn and take in.

If I didn't have this writing gig I would forever remain ignorant because I wouldn't be wagering on anything other than college football but since I have to play games everyday I have to step outside my comfort zone.

 

[maxdalury]

Turning a profit or breaking even by analyzing matchups is 100 times or maybe even 1000 times more difficult than analyzing lines. I honestly think that an intelligent middle school could turn a profit by analyzing lines.

 

[Saulty]

Wally always pay attention to line movement the last 15 min before kickoff for soccer. Most of the time it will tell you what the right play is if it's a significant move going only in one direction.

 

[wal66]

Great point Pavy.

 

[maxdalury]

Wally always pay attention to line movement the last 15 min before kickoff for soccer. Most of the time it will tell you what the right play is if it's a significant move going only in one direction.

It is only the right play if you get the right price. Many pros make their living by following the line movement in the last 15 min PROVIDED you get the right price.

 

[wal66]

This question/theory of price has been hashed and rehashed. The pros pro will always be concerned with price where as a professional capper is only concerned with line movement and a different kind of calculated edge.

Personally and I'm sure I am in the minority I can't see where one is better than the other if you are good at what you do. If someone wins what's it matter if he got a slightly worse price than someone else who got a much better price but lost the game?

Don't take this as me saying price isn't important or that expected value doesn't have it's place, they both are relevant to those that use them. Someone like Pavy (from what I have seen) is just as good as someone like MonkeyFocker (again from what I have seen) even though they approach the games from different perspectives.

 

[rito]

You are wrong. Period.