Pinnacle NFL alternate line question

[djiddish98]

Another question re: pinnacle pricing

Was taking a look at the alternate lines for the NE - MIA game tonight, and they are currently offering Miami +7.5 for -300.

Also, I noticed this week they're offering the Saints ML at -325, with the Saints being a 7 point favorite.

Why would there be such a discrepancy in favor of the saints? Yes, these are different markets, but you're essentially getting an 8.5 point tease for a cheaper price than a 7 point tease (if we ignore the lean on the spread, which isn't too big).

what am I missing?

 

[djiddish98]

Pats +7.5 now -305 as opposed to Dolphins +7.5 at -300. ML is -106 / -104 for the Dolphins.

Not that anyone bets these, but it's a bit sillay.

 

[maxdalury]

you need to look into the fact that there are slightly different push probabilities for home and away teams with the same spread.

 

[djiddish98]

you need to look into the fact that there are slightly different push probabilities for home and away teams with the same spread.

Is slightly different a material amount?

For Week 5, it costs 25 cents to buy Rams from +3 to +3.5 (away). It costs 26 cents to buy Browns +3 to +3.5 (home) - the difference I assume is really just rounding.

However, I haven't looked into differences between home / road when the number is far away from the original spread.