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It is only the right play if you get the right price. Many pros make their living by following the line movement in the last 15 min PROVIDED you get the right price.

Turning a profit or breaking even by analyzing matchups is 100 times or maybe even 1000 times more difficult than analyzing lines. I honestly think that an intelligent middle school could turn a profit by analyzing lines.

yea my miami futures for afc east, afc, and superbowl are fucked.

i smoke twice a day on weekdays and pretty much all day on weekends, but most of the time while im high i just right computer code. (Im a huge nerd)

its actually on http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/ under schools.

i found what i was looking for at basketball-reference.com

well its generally not on the rosters, and I was going to program a scraper to get information into a database. There is no way in hell i am doing it manually.

Specifically who the coaches were one and two years ago for division 1 schools, I can find this years coaches but not anything historical.

That's while I felt obligated to give him bad data

i was able to get +17 -110

with you guys im on +39 -104

Implied probability is the chance of the team winning or covering the spread at the given spread, so if the implied probability is 51% from pinnacle for team A and rebate wager has a line of -100 for team A, then if you bet $100 on team A If they win you get $100+$100 and if they lose you...

you need to look into the fact that there are slightly different push probabilities for home and away teams with the same spread.

as I am complaining about phoenix group, they transferred 3.5K to youwager in matter of 4 hours, I was extremely suprised. but I proceeded to lose most of it on texas a&m 2H,

it is literally impossible to get anything done at a phoenix book. you have to remind them two or three times for anything. the managers need to approve everything but they are gone for 4-5 days at a time.

the fact that the number is at 2.5 at pinnacle is all you need to know.

looks like a winner. thanks for the tip.

oh ok. you are right, i thought that you weren't using a solver to optimize the stakes, and just using the probability of each individual teaser without taking into account the correlation between the teasers.

you understand that kelly is designed for uncorrelated plays and these are all very highly correlated, while it may be a +EV even at a kelly multiplier of .25, this is likely -EG.

there are already some resources online that already have scripts that will load the retrosheet into mysql db just by running a python script. although it may in your interest to increase your familiarity with databases,etc. to load it into a mysql db yourself.