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Also, I need to dig deeper into the -110 sweetheart teasers. I think there is so good value there if you can work in some .5 games or anything landing on the 9

I had several teasers on min, cle, az combo (plus a 3 teamer with Miami) but also mixed in det and chi. Ended up down on the day. Still it was fun formulating these plays - there were a bunch today.

Are you worried about any of those lines moving in the next 24 hours? I have no experience betting NFLx, so I don't know what to expect

I think the -3.5 to +3.5 is under rated, primarily because you get to go through the 3 twice, regardless of wasting points on the 0. Yes, that second +3 isn't going to push at a 9% clip, but I don't think mid 7% is out of the question. This teaser has not performed well in the past, but I...

Just put down one at Bodog based upon the following information: Bodog 7 point teasers are -130 The Saints are currently +1.5 / +100 at pinnacle The Ravens are currently -3.5 / -113 at pinnacle Based on my (rough) calculations, this seems like the best 2 team teaser for today's games...

Wal - look into excel's web import functionality. It's very rudimentary and your data needs to be in a basic table layout (which is disappearing quickly on the web these days with more sites getting all fancy pants), but it's a nice place to start .

If IsOdd is not included (you can try =IsOdd(2) to see if you get a result or error), you can try this work around =IF(ROW(D1)/2<>INT(ROW(D1)/2),INDEX(A:B,(ROW(D1)+1)/2,1),INDEX(A:B,ROW(D1)/2,2)) Hopefully the INT function is in there.

What version of excel do you have (if you are even using excel)? This normally means that the function is not defined. I see IsOdd, row, and index in excel 2007. I'm wondering if IsOdd might be new in 2007 though?

This looks like it should do the job and is fairly straight forward. If for some reason it doesn't, you could create an index value for each column value. The items in column A could be listed as 1A, 2A, 3A and column B could be 1B, 2B, 3B etc (this can be done by using the concatenate...

Does the ordering matter / is this data that can be ordered easily? Why not just copy Column B to the bottom of column A and then resort?

I also have 3 years of pinny data I pulled from SBR, although I feel like this is too small a sample to gauge things with. The nice thing about that data is that it also has the odds on the spread, so I can know if a spread is leaning one way or another. However, I'd have to do some adjustments...

Thanks for the input, durito. I was thinking something should be done to correct some of the noise in the past data, as opposed to just taking the historical tease win percentages at face value. Any opinion on "push decay", if that term is even correct - should it be factored in or is it not...

Also, does anyone believe that the home dog bias has disappeared? I feel like you need many years to fully evaluate these things, but in looking at 2000 - 2009, I see away faves actually covering the spread 50.5% of the time, as opposed to 1978 - 1999, they covered the spread 45.51% of the time...

Correct. In my data (from sunshine forecast; thanks SBR), -3.5 Faves covered the spread 45.36% of the time (out of 571 observations), and -3.5 faves won by exactly 3 11.03% of the time, a huge push %. This leads me to believe that -3.5 faves are really more like -3 faves in disguise. The...

Intuitively, one would think that crossing the 3 twice would be about the best thing you could do in an NFL teaser, even if you have to waste points crossing the 0. Yes, there is likely some "push decay" in crossing that second 3 (from +2.5 to +3.5), since we are farther from the true line...

Damn, I've been missing out on these soccer bets. How has your soccer P&L been lately?

Yeah, I've quickly learned just how unreliable these low limit spreads are. I'm going to start betting with a variable kelly multiplier based on the limit offered / 10k, with a hard cap at 1. So I probably should have used a .07 multiplier with the 740 limits they're offering.

Who likes 17% edges on sports with low limits? Aarau / Locarno over 3 +100 at Bodog (Today's other leagues in the soccer menu) I bet using a .1 kelly multiplier, after getting burned repeatedly on these leagues.

Time for some more thread resurrection that's completely off topic! So I'm trying to calculate the implied push probs based on buying a half point via pinny's drop downs. If we look at the Minnesota / New Orleans game, I have the following prices (from yesterday): +3.5 / -3.5 -105 / -108 +3...

Also, You should try throwing out special lines for long odds matchups - like in real life, most SBR posters have terrible point roll management.