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You're right to question the numbers - to clarify, I did not optimize the values for all these bets. Even the simple calculation of 4 teams each at 75% win chance with constant tease amount is a somewhat complex problem to setup. To calculate with respect to all the potential bets and all the...

Some more reading about this http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/39655-kelly-criterion-correlated-wagers.html#post341997 Keep in mind that this example has 2 teamers at +100, as opposed to my current book of -110.

All the legs are uncorrelated I believe, unless I have two teams playing against each other in one of the legs for each bet (which I don't think there is). We maximize our expected growth by doing the round robin. I'm not well versed on the math, but here's the solver setup. Pretend that all...

Here's some more info. Keep in mind that I'm not flat betting all these. Some I like a lot more than others. Again, apologies for the bad formatting. I have not taken into account Totals or Push prob decay, although based on my limited research and what pinnacle is telling me, these factors...

Yes - the 6.5 and 6 are number of points teased. Hopefully someone can come in and show me an error before I pull the trigger (tomorrow night).

I'm going to put my entire (small) bankroll on the line with this. Because I'm using a .25 multiplier, I can make more bets. However, it might make sense to go with a .5 multiplier and reduce the number of teases. I haven't thought about this enough (I am pretty risk averse)

82!

As an aside, zero handicapping has gone into these tease considerations. I'm assuming the market has correctly valued each team at this point in time. The reason I like these plays is due to the push %s they cross with the tease.

Plan is to bet all of these, although things might change by tomorrow. Sorted by Edge, and using a .25 kelly multiplier. Edit: God the formatting is ugly. Kansas City Chiefs Dallas Cowboys Jacksonville Jaguars 6 Dallas Cowboys Jacksonville Jaguars New York Jets 6.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dallas...

Since I realized the errors of taking a 2 teamer at -110 when a 3 teamer at +180 is available, I'll be sticking to the 3 teamers from now on. As it stands now, I like the following teams in a tease: Jags +3 Cowboys +3 Jets +2 Chiefs +3 Buccs +3 most of these are of the +6.5 tease...

Have you tried dipping? You're still dealing with cancer, but at least you don't have the effects on the lungs and your breathing. Plus it's easier to do inside.

Hope everyone enjoyed the Bengals and Redskins teaser combos today.

What are we liking on the board? Not as many options as last week, but I'm seeing a ton of combos with the Redskins +3 and/or Bengals +3.

Can you share a high level overview of some criteria you use to evaluate these games? I'm curious.

+200 - gufawwwww? Nice bet - may the gambling gods be with you.

By my calcs (which might be wrong), Minnesota teased 6 points (from +6) should win ~71.2% of the time. The minimum tease threshold on 2 teamer at -110 is 72.4%, but when you pair them with Houston, you make up the difference. However, I'm not taking totals into account, which probably knocks...

Is anyone putting Minnesota in their NFL teasers this weekend? I see a two teamer with Minn and Houston (+2.5) that looks ok, as well as a bunch of 3 teamers with about half the league. Are you pulling the trigger, or are these Thursday games too early? I'm personally thinking about passing...

So NCAA teasers are pretty crappy - even at totals in the low 40s, Pinnacle has a push prob on the 3 of about 6.5%, versus a 9+% for the NFL. Losing that 3% is pretty rough on a teaser. I noticed their push on the 7 was in line with the NFL though, and the only logic for lowering the 3 push...

Any updates on how you all feel about this book? still a good option? About to put some money in.

What ISP? Comcast is a douche about this. I was put on a one year ban.