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Updated 2nd round estimates: BYU up, largely eating into st. John's chances. Wisconsin and Kansas St. Fall. I think NO for west virginia is a great bet right now. Team 2nd RD ML 2ND RD ML Xavier 37.20% 169 Vanderbilt 42.30% 136 Arizona 42.35% 136 West Virginia 48.38% 107 St...

The more I look at the southeast region, the more destruction I see. My current bracket has ODU, Utah St., Gonzaga an Florida in the sweet 16. I have Florida currently advancing, but I'm not very enthused about it. I think any of the lower seeds have a great shot at making it to the final...

Just a reminder - I don't watch any college basketball - all these notes are simply gleaned from interpretation of the kenpom stats.

Also UCLA - Michigan St. Thoughts? UCLA is pretty sloppy with the ball, but Michigan St. forces below average turnovers. Michigan St. has a pretty well rounded game offensively, getting league average contributions from 3pts, 2pts and FTs. UCLA's offense and defense seem to avoid the 3, with...

Anyone have any thoughts on the Butler - Old Dominion game? From what little I've read and recall about Butler in the past, Matt Howard staying out of foul trouble is likely a key here. I'm thinking that Old Dominion is going to work it inside and crash the glass which will draw some fouls on...

Worried about the injury for St. Johns? Who else do you like?

That explains both the Purdue drop as well as the weird numbers around the 6 seeds, since Georgetown would play Purdue if they advance.

Louisville and Purdue both got hit Louisville 62.82% -169 Purdue 65.89% -193

How's this for confusing: Cincy slightly favored to advance further than St. John's; St. John's slightly favored to advance further than Gtown; Gtown heavily favored to advance further than Xavier; Xavier slightly favored to advance further than Cincy. Cincinnati St. John's -110 Xavier -104...

St. John's props have moved against them.

Your instincts are right - UGA is the worst 10 seed - it's dog odds to make it farther than any of the other 10s.

Consolidated "Who will make it farther odds" - For example, Arizona is -163 (with vig) to advance further than Vandy. Arizona Vanderbilt -163 West Virginia -153 Kansas State -132 Butler Michigan -121 UNLV 102 George Mason 103 BYU Connecticut 110 Syracuse 159 Purdue 200 Cincinnati...

rolling with Belmont or utah st. might not be bad if you want to advance a high seeded team and break out of the chalk. Prob of Wisc or Utah St. advancing = 66.5% Prob of Kentucky or Wva advancing = 86% Prob of Texas or Arizona advancing = 87.57% Prob of Louisville or Vandy advancing = 82.72%...

Current ML for St Johns is -118, which I converted to a no-vig % of 52.84% (gonzaga is +107). St John's is +237 to make it to 16 / -267 not to, which I convert to a no-vig % of 28.97% to advance to sweet 16. 28.97% / 52.84% = 54.82%, which is higher than their round 1 ml However, I did make...

Also interesting is that St. John's has a better chance of beating BYU than Gonzaga.

So here's a quick rush job of what I think the expected 2nd round ML is going to be. By taking the no-vig odds of the will make sweet 16 prop, as well as first round money lines, I think we can get a good estimate. I wonder how these compare to log5 analysis. Also, I think it's a bit odd that...

The south east seems the most wide open IMO (that portion of the bracket that everyone has red) so I might as well take my risk and go utah st. beating belmont. The more I look over these numbers, the less valuable they seem, but I'm still crunching.

I like to build my bracket around odds and spreads. Pinnacle has "Will they make the sweet 16" odds for most of the top seeded teams - granted, the limits are small, but I think this could be of interest to bracket builders looking to get some insight into second round potential lines...

So I ran some rough figures, largely centered around the kenpom numbers, and there were a few outliers from what the spreads are saying. Since I view spreads (largely) as gospel, I wanted to figure out where my model is off and open up some games for discussion. I don't follow college bball at...

I think this bracket violates BYU honor code.