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FLYERS -1.5 (+125) Sportsbook.com

Well haven't been posting much lately as I have been very busy and selective but we still found a way to be 4.35 units up this week as Philly -1.5 (+225) covered over Tampa and Washington (-1.5) +210 covered over Buffalo.


Tonight we go for the 3-0 week as Philly hosts Toronto.


Yes +125 at first is an intimidating line for a 1.5 goal line but let's examine it.


First off, Philly has been resting since a 3-2 overtime loss to Ryan Miller and the Sabres on Friday night. Toronto had a nice overtime win in Ottawa last night - but don't let that fool you Ottawa has a flu epidemic on their team and had more than half dozen players out and a very limited bench last night.


So, we have a well rested Philly team hosting a Toronto team on back to back nights coming in from Ottawa.


Earlier in the season I labeled the Flyers as a team that will struggle with the big boys and will pound the inferior teams. This remains true and this is a spot to exploit this tendency of theirs.


Let's break down some stats.


Overall records: Leafs 20-32-12 Flyers 33-26-4


Leafs away 9-18-7 Flyers Home 18-11-2


Last 10: Leafs 3-5-2 Philly 6-3-1 including some lopsided victories over Montreal and Tampa Bay


Special Teams: Philly Power Play 22.6% good enough for 3rd in the NHL Toronto 15.9% 3rd to last in the NHL


Penalty Killing: Philly 81.2% 18th in the NHL Toronto 72.2% dead last in the NHL
Look for 2 or more Flyers Power Play goals


The playoff race in the East will show you that Philly is in 6th but only 2 points out of 8th. The Bullies play with a sense of urgency tonight and cover against an exhausted Toronto team, look for it to be over quick.


Big play here serious mismatch and perfect spot for Philly to cover - all the motivation in the world for them to play hard.


As always best of luck today, take it down.
 
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